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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 1st, 2013–Jan 2nd, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

More sun today may weaken cornices. Give them wide berth while traveling along ridges, and avoid traveling below them if they are getting direct sun. Snowpack depths are below average and crevasses are still thinly bridged.

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure with a mild inversion will result in dry conditions with valley cloud and alpine sun for the next 3 days.  Moderate N'ly winds today may reverse load lee slopes, before the winds back off and return to more W'ly tomorrow. Freezing levels will remain at valley bottom. A low pressure system is expected late Thursday.

Snowpack Summary

Surface snow is facetting with cold temps. Recent tests indicate that the interface down ~30cm between the new and old settled snow will fail with moderate force but is resistant to move. The Nov. crust down 160cm collapses with a hard force in snowpack tests but has yet to produce avalanches. Snowpack depths are below average.

Avalanche Summary

Direct morning sun on easterly aspects caused a large chunk of cornice to fail on Cheops Mtn, triggering a size 2 slab. Small, loose avalanches also ran during this period from steep solar aspects, before clouds moved in reducing the solar effects. Skiers report sluffing of the top 20cm on steep slopes.

Confidence

Problems

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.