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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 18th, 2015–Dec 19th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

New snow and strong winds have contributed to a developing wind slab.

Weather Forecast

Light snow today with strong westerly winds and freezing levels remaining below 1000m. Expect 8cm of new snow accumulation by late Friday evening.

Snowpack Summary

20-30cm of snow covers a supportive crust below 1600m. 80cm of settled snow covers the Dec 2 interface, which is surface hoar below tree-line and a sun crust on steep, solar features at treeline and alpine.  In exposed areas, the depth is variable due to wind-scouring. This layer may still be reactive to skiers in certain areas.

Avalanche Summary

Sluffing and skier triggered size 1's from sidewalls of steep gully features have been reported in the alpine. Several size 1.5 point release avalanches were observed in the Connaught area, triggered from steep rocky terrain. A size 2.5 natural slab avalanche had a long thin run of 1500m from cliffs below Teddy Bear Ridge in to the basin.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.