Recent natural avalanches from steep paths have been triggered by loading. Minimize your exposure; spread out while crossing paths like "Frequent Flyer", and the higher track up Connaught to avoid exposure to "STS" (aka Cheops N4) is advised.
Weather Forecast
The moist and mild weather will continue; another pulse of intense precip and wind is expected mid-day, followed by scattered flurries through Monday. Freezing levels will remain at valley bottom. Mod to strong S-W winds will load slopes. On Tuesday, another system will bring heavy precip, with freezing levels rising to 12-1500m.
Snowpack Summary
A new storm slab is forming; 40cm of storm snow fell in the last 3 days. Moderate-strong S'ly winds will have formed windslabs and fat pockets on lee slopes. This overlies the Nov28 layer which will be most reactive where surface hoar was buried; sheltered areas at treeline. The Nov 6 crust is facetting and may become reactive with increasing load.
Avalanche Summary
Yesterday, distinct avalanche cycles occurred during periods of intense loading by wind and snow. 1 size 3 and 22 size 2-2.5 natural avalanches were observed from paths above the highway, east of Rogers Pass. These occurred from steep complex terrain, some avalanching repeatedly. Skiers reported seeing an avalanche in "frequent flyer" path.
Confidence
Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.