Storm slabs will likely be reactive to skier and rider triggers. Changing winds from the East to the Southwest will potentially form wind slabs on most aspects.
Confidence
Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain
Weather Forecast
Overnight Thursday: New snow 5-10 cm accompanied by strong southwest winds and freezing level at valley bottom.Friday: Cloudy with sunny periods. Snow 2-10 cm possible, but low confidence with actuals. Ridgetop winds light gusting strong from the southwest. Alpine temperatures near -2 and freezing levels 1500 m.Saturday: Mix of sun and cloud. Snow amounts near 5 cm and ridgetop wind strong from the southwest. Alpine temperatures near -3 and freezing levels 1500 m.Sunday: Mix of sun and cloud. Freezing levels near 1300 m. Ridgetop winds mostly light with strong gusts from the southwest.
Avalanche Summary
No recent avalanches reported on Thursday. Wednesday, several natural loose wet releases from sunny aspects and loose dry from northerly aspects were reported up to size 1. The avalanche hazard will rise with forecast wind and precipitation.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 10 cm of new snow will likely have a poor bond to the plethora of old snow surfaces including a melt-freeze crust on sunny aspects, surface hoar on north aspects above 1600 m and moist snow surfaces below 1600 m. Isolated wind slabs are building on most aspects due to the changing winds and overhanging cornices exist along ridgelines. Deeper in the snowpack, the mid-December and late-November weak layers are composed of crusts and sugary facets, which are down 150-300 cm. These layers are currently dormant.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.