Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions continue to exist today as human-triggered persistent slab avalanches are likely at all elevations. The fragile weak faceted snowpack before the two-foot storm has not held up well to the added load and will continue to need time to adjust. Wind drifted slopes and cross-loaded gullies that have seen the most amount of loading will be most suspect  It's possible to trigger avalanches from long distances or from below.  Cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential today.  Any avalanche triggered could be large and dangerous.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The Dec 11 - 14th storm that added about 2ft of new snow and 2" of water has put significant stress on the shallow weak faceted snowpack. The fragile faceted snow will continue to need more time to adjust. We continue to be able to remotely trigger persistent slab avalanches from long distances in our travels on Monday. Below treeline, these avalanches were smaller and failing on a thin layer of basal facets near the ground so we are keeping avalanche danger there at Moderate. However, these smaller avalanches still have the ability to take you for a consequential ride into trees, rocks, or terrain traps.

    Pay attention to obvious clues like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks. You can trigger these avalanches from long distances and from below.  Avoid slopes or terrain steeper than 35 degrees being mindful of avalanche terrain that's above you.

    Various weak faceted layers that exist in the snowpack have not handled it's first significant test well.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Moderate to strong Southwest winds on Monday were easily transporting snow and stiffening the snow surface into cohesive slabs.  Pay attention to wind drifted pillows and stiff hard surfaces that will most likely be found on the leeward side of ridgelines and in cross-loaded gullies.  Any wind slab avalanche would be small but has the ability to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.

    Wind slabs forming on Monday with moderate to strong SW winds on the leeward sides of ridgelines.

Avalanche Discussion

It's been a busy last 4 days with the weak shallow faceted snowpack receiving its first significant test with these series of storms.  1 - 2 inches of snow early this morning into Tuesday won't do much to change the already dangerous avalanche conditions. Every indication is that these weak faceted layers have not held up well.  A widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred Friday night into early Saturday morning.  Natural avalanches were observed at all elevations and aspects except for true South.  There are still lots of slopes that haven't hit that tipping point and are just waiting for a trigger.

In our travels, we continue to get widespread whumpf's and shooting cracks at all elevations.  A remotely triggered avalanche from an adjacent slope from well below the crown on Monday is a great indication that slabs and weak layers are able to communicate long distances right now.  It's a safe assumption to assume any slope right now has some form of weak layer either near the ground as depth hoar or just below the storm snow as a faceted crust. Regardless of where the weak layers are the overall problem is the same.   

Terrain selection is the one tool we have right now to not put ourselves in harms way.  Slowing down and sticking to terrain less than 30 degrees is a great way to keep yourself safe.  Always be mindful of what slopes may be above you as you could potentially release an avalanche from above even from flat terrain.  Consider the consequences of what would happen if you triggered an avalanche, watch for terrain traps where snow can easily collect.  Stay safe and fight the temptation to chase powder right now.  The snowpack is still sensitive and needs time to adjust to this load. 

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