Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions continue to exist today at all elevations. Continued snow and strong SW winds continue to build wind slabs at all elevations.  These cohesive slabs are sitting on top of a weak faceted snowpack. You are most likely to trigger a persistent slab or wind slab avalanche on North through East aspects where we've had the most amount of loading.  Avoid traveling on or below slopes greater than 30 degrees that show obvious signs of wind loading and keep an eye out for signs of instability such as audible collapses and shooting cracks.  Avalanches that run on deeper weak layers will be large enough to bury or injury you and may run long distances.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    A weak shallow faceted snowpack that existed before this recent snow will struggle to adjust to the added weight and new cohesive slabs that are forming on the surface.  Strong SW winds over the last 24 hours have easily transported and loaded slopes.  We are extremely well connected and uniform with our weak layers in the snowpack. Adding a more uniform slab on top of this structure will increase the likelihood of triggering an avalanche into these buried weak layers.

    Persistent Slab avalanches will have the potential to be triggered remotely from a distance and from lower angled terrain.  Pay attention to obvious clues like loud audible whumfs and shooting cracks. These avalanches could be large enough to bury, injure, or kill a person.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes greater than 30 degrees today. Below treeline, these avalanches will be smaller but can gouge and entrain the older weak snow creating a potentially dangerous avalanche that could drag you into trees, rocks, or terrain traps. 

    An overall weak shallow snowpack prior to the storm is just missing the addition of a more cohesive slab to produce destructive avalanches.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    We've picked up 6 to 10 inches of new snow since early Monday morning.  The big story has been the strong SW winds that have easily transported snow into cohesive slabs on the surface.  These slabs have formed on a variety of different surfaces from hard slabs, crusts to faceted snow and may not be bonding well to the old interface.  The leeward side of ridgelines and cross-loaded gullies and slopes will have the most amount of loading where we could see slabs upwards of 2 feet thick.  Reports yesterday were that these slabs easily propagated from ski tips, expect that trend to continue today. 

    Pay attention to obvious clues like shooting cracks on the surface. A smaller wind slab avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.  

     

    Strong SW winds over the last 24 hours have easily transported and loaded North and East aspects.

Avalanche Discussion

The second in a series of storms has made its way to northern New Mexico early this morning and bringing an additional 2 to 4 inches of snow to the mountains throughout the day today.  Snow totals since early Monday are 6 to 10 inches with about .7" of snow water equivalent (SWE).  SW winds have been cranking over the last 24 hours with gusts in the 90's and sustained winds in the 20 to 40 mph range.

Newly formed slabs on the surface are doing two things that are helping to drive the increase in avalanche danger for the day. New snow instabilities especially on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded gullies have seen significant loading from wind deposited snow.  These wind slabs are dangerous in their own right and may be upwards of 2 feet thick and able to propagate far distances today from your ski tips.  An avalanche in the new storm snow will most likely step down into weaker layers gouging and collecting more snow as it moves downhill.   

The bigger more dangerous concern is persistent slab avalanches on North through East aspects. Newly formed cohesive slabs now rest on top of a very weak and fragile faceted snowpack that took shape during the two-plus weeks of high pressure that existed before this storm.  If you're curious how this faceting process happened you can check out the Conditions Blog. This is the first major test these faceted weak layers have had in a long time. With a similar set-up to what we had during the Mid December storm, we may see natural avalanches especially in steep north and east-facing terrain. The one constant we have right now is well connected weak layers at all elevations.  With the introduction of a cohesive slab on the surface, we should see avalanches that are able to propagate far distances or from below steeper slopes. With a shallow snowpack and depth hoar near the ground, you may be able to trigger an avalanche failing on the ground that is able to run long distances.

Today will not be the day to push things into steeper terrain.  Remotely triggered avalanches that break well above you or travel long distances are a real possibility.  Use careful snowpack evaluation and cautious route-finding to help steer clear of the developing hazard. Avoid traveling on or under slopes greater than 30 degrees on North through East aspects as we continue to accumulate snow. Signs of instability such as audible collapses and shooting cracks are great indications that you should dial back your terrain selection. 

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