Avalanche forecast

Northern Wallowas

Wallowa Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Human triggered avalanches are possible and could produce large avalanches with crown depths up to 2-3 feet.  Where the solstice rain crust is thinner and more breakable (higher elevations),  a person and/or machine could more easily trigger an avalanche failing on a persistent weak layer that was buried on December 16th.  The consequences of triggering an avalanche into this old sugar snow could be devastating.   New snow from December 22 could be continuing to be blown into slabs that could be sensitive along leeward ridgelines and cross loaded gullies.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Observers in the Southern Wallowas have noticed a layer of buried surface hoar that has been mostly found at mid elevation bands on NW-NE aspects and produced natural avalanches following the foot of new snow that fell on 12/16-12/17.  Check out the pro observation from this time period here.  The solstice rain event started out as snow at the Schneider Meadows Snotel (5400'), and between the evening of 12/19 and the evening of 12/20, this station recorded 9" of new snow before likely turning to rain with a total snow water equivelant of 2".   Forecasters have not verified, but expect there to have been a widespread natural avalanche cycle during this event.  If you have any observations from this time, (or any time!)  please submit information and/or pictures to the WAC here.  Just as the name suggests, persistent weak layers are persistent and take time (often on the scale of weeks), to stabilize.  Patience is required by the any backcountry traveller when dealing with a persistent slab avalanche problem.  I would expect this persistent slab to be reactive to a person and/or machine in the right spot.  Careful snowpack assessment and patience are necessary as these persistent weak layers could  be more easily triggered where the solstice rain crust is thinner.  Where might this crust be thinner?  I would expect it to be thinner at higher elevations wherever the freezing line was.  When uncertainty in the the snowpack exists, create a margin for yourself by choosing simple terrain void of terrain traps and stick to lower angle slopes (less than 35 degrees).   Look for red flags of instability such as shooting cracks, whumphing, and recent avalanche activity- if seeing any of these signs, choose lower angle and more simple terrain.  

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    A maintenance check is needed of our Kip Rand weather station near Norway Basin, as the quality of the wind direction is suspect.  That being said, the wind has likely blown around the new snow from 12/22 into shallow wind slabs at the upper elevation ridgelines.  Look for smooth looking wind pillows along ridgelines and in cross loaded terrain features.  Test the sensitivity of these fresh wind slabs on inconsequential test slopes.  Even a small wind slab avalanche in the wrong place could lead to a bad day.  

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