Avalanche forecast

Ogden

Issued Jan 1, 2020valid to Jan 2, 2020Utah Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger

Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline

Out of date — this forecast expired 7 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger is on the RISE today. Today is simple: heavy snowfall and high winds will create avalanches. The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on all mid and upper elevation aspects and MODERATE on all lower elevation aspects.

Both human-triggered and natural avalanches are likely especially as the snowfall intensifies. Avoid being on or underneath slopes steeper than 30 degrees, and avoid avalanche runout zones.

The avalanche danger may reach HIGH by the afternoon with the rapidly changing conditions.. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully. Use caution while route finding, and make conservative decisions.

Avalanche problems

Storm Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Very Likely
Size
2
Before the coming storm, we had beautiful low-density cold smoke. The sluffs that were running long and fast indicated weak snow and a variety of smooth bed surfaces exist. Add new snow and wind and we have a pretty straight forward problem on our hands, particularly with a higher density new storm slab on top of that weaker layer of snow. Heavy snowfall will create sensitive storm snow today, and these may even be triggered at a distance.

Human triggered avalanches are likely, as well as natural avalanches, especially during any period of high precipitation intensity and increased winds. Pay attention to rapidly changing conditions, and watch for and avoid slopes with cracking, avalanching, even on smaller slopes.

Avalanche danger will be on the RISE today.

A great photo of the weak surface grains that this new slab will land on top of, creating a heavy slab on top of a weak layer. (Photo: D. Wewer)
Wind Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Very Likely
Size
2
Today's strong west to northwesterly winds, which could be gusting up at 75 mph at ridgetops, will have plenty of new snow to work with, creating fresh wind drifts on all aspects at the mid and upper elevations. These wind drifts will be most pronounced near ridgelines and on easterly and southerly facing terrain where the new snow will be deposited. The wind speeds will easily be able to drift snow into the mid-elevations where ALL aspects must be treated with caution.

Additional wind loading will just increase our problem of a strong slab, over weak snow. The snowpack becomes a game of Jenga in which we have removed the bottom pieces, and just keep adding more to the top. Too much load on top of the weak base and it will topple over.

Look for signs of wind drifted snow, such as soft pillows, cracking, and whumphing and avoid them.

Watch for sensitive cornices along upper elevation ridgelines, give cornices a wide berth as they can break back farther than expected.

Special Announcement

Get discount lift tickets HERE. Thanks for this generous support from Utah Ski Resorts and Ski Utah. All proceeds go directly to supporting the UAC.

Landmines - Notes from an Army officer frequently deployed to the middle east who is also a skier living in Utah.

Podcasts - Check out two recent ones with Doug Workman and Jenna Malone.

Recent Activity

Sluffing, small wind slabs and a few isolated very small soft slabs noted in the steepest terrain yesterday.

Snow and Weather

This morning, mountain temperatures are in the mid-20s F at trailheads and low 20s F at ridgetops. Winds are westerly and light in the valley, but increasing rapidly at with gusts above 60 mph at Ogden Peak. Light snowfall began around 5:00 AM with trace to 2 inches of snow so far.

Today, the bottom line is that it's going to snow and it's going to blow. Initially, the snow will fall with warmer temperatures and high densities, bringing about 6-10 inches of 8-10% snow by the early afternoon. Then temperatures will begin to drop and we will transition to a cooler northwest flow, bringing another 3-5 inches of lower density snow. On top of the increased snow amounts, winds will continue to be strong and westerly averaging 20-35 mph with gusts up to 75 mph at ridgetops.

General Announcements

CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures