Abajos

The avalanche danger remains MODERATE. Deep and dangerous human-triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer remain the primary concern. You are most likely to trigger one of these avalanches on steep terrain near and above treeline that faces NW through N through SE. Thin snowpack areas around rock outcroppings, sparse trees, or along slope margins are the most likely trigger points. As the day heats up we may some loose wet activity on sun-exposed slopes. Look for signs of instability such as roller balls and pinwheels, and get off of and out from under steep slopes if they become wet and sloppy.

Moderate to strong northerly winds overnight are starting to back off this morning and it's looking like a beautiful day on tap in the mountains. Under sunny skies, NE winds will continue to decrease shifting to southerly later in the day. High temps at 10,000' will be near 40F. Conditions remain dry through early next week until a much-watched Pacific trough moves down the coast and eventually inland sometime around Tue-Wed. Timing and precipitation amounts still look vague.

NWS Weather Forecast.

Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')

Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')

Snowpack Discussion

Warm temperatures and time have helped consolidate the snowpack, but weak layers are still present, especially in shady areas at higher elevations. A poor snowpack structure still exists and on slopes facing NW-N-SE a slab 1'-3' thick exists on top of buried, weak, facets. These slabs are becoming harder to trigger but once released they would produce deep and dangerous avalanches. Likely trigger points include shallower areas along slope margins, around sparse trees or rock outcroppings, or on repeat running slide paths.

Steep north-facing terrain is the most likely place you can still trigger a deep, persistent-slab avalanche. This is an aerial photo of a NW aspect of Jackson Ridge taken on 2/23/2021. You can see that snow depth is variable, and winds have drifted snow, creating dangerous slabs over buried weak layers.

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This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.