Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Generally safe avalanche conditions exist and large avalanches are unlikely. You are most likely to encounter an avalanche problem in very steep, rocky, and wind-affected terrain. Continue to follow safe travel protocols—carry your rescue gear, travel one at a time in avalanche terrain, and keep your eyes on your partners. 

There is no well-defined avalanche problem in this zone, and triggering a large avalanche is unlikely. Of course, as the saying goes, LOW danger is not the same as no danger. As the danger drops we often find ourselves seeking out steeper terrain. Here, even minor problems can carry high consequences. Be on the lookout for the problems described below and think about the potential consequences of encountering them in the terrain you are in:

• Wind Slabs: thin, isolated wind slabs exist in upper elevation terrain. These slabs are generally well-bonded to the surfaces that they are resting on and are mostly just decreasing the skiing/riding quality where they exist. However, if you find one sitting on a layer of icy snow with facets you may still be able to trigger it.
• Remnant Snow from October: A layer of weak snow exists at the base of the snowpack on shaded middle elevation slopes and most upper elevation slopes. In this zone, this layer is buried 4-6' deep and is finally getting the rest it needs to gradually heal. It would take a dose of bad luck, to trigger one of these monsters, but you would need an equal dose of good luck to survive the aftermath. 
• Cornices: Cornices have grown to impressive sizes already this year, which is unusual for January. In my recent travels in the mountains, I've seen lots of giant cornices that are yawning off the steep terrain that they are attached to. In many places, large cracks and crevasses exist between the ridgeline and the cornice itself. Even just falling into one of these could have some nasty consequences. Large cornice failures can be very effective triggers for the deeply-burried weak snow described above.
• Wet Loose Slides: The natural cycle of wet loose (point-release) activity has largely run its course at this point. However, with overnight temperatures hovering around freezing in the mountains it won't take too much sun to melt the crust that formed on the snow surface. If you are playing in very steep, rocky terrain that directly faces the sun during the heat of the day you might be able to push some of this wet surface snow into a small slide. 

Here's a challenge for you for today: when you head out into the mountains, I'd like you to think about the snow surfaces that you are traveling on and how they might behave if we threw a big storm at them. We spend a lot of time talking about weak snow in the snowpack, but these layers don't just spontaneously appear. They typically form at the surface and are buried by subsequent storms. Right now we are in a period of weak layer creation. At a certain point, we will be burying these layers. Be on the lookout for crusts, faceted snow, and surface hoar in your travels today. If you can find all three of these in one location there will be a mind-blowing prize for you! Take a photo and send it to me at [email protected] in order to claim your prize! (Forecaster's note: there is no prize, but I can guarantee an excited email in response.)