Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

You’ll probably find very firm and even icy snow in the morning. As the warm temperatures and sunshine start to soften the surface, you could encounter enough wet snow to produce small loose avalanches in a few isolated areas like near rocks, cliffs, and very steep slopes receiving direct sunshine.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    First thing in the morning, the frozen snow surface will prevent any loose wet avalanche danger. Eventually, the sunshine and warm temperatures will start to soften the snow, but even this won’t bring any real avalanche hazard. By later in the day, the surface may weaken in a few isolated areas near rocks, cliffs, and very steep slopes basking in the sunshine. It’s these very specific locations where you want to keep an eye out for unstable snow. Step off your sled, skis, or board and see how deep your foot sinks into the snow. If you find more than 4”(ankle deep) wet snow on the surface, small loose wet avalanche may be possible. Even though we think these avalanches will remain small, don’t let them catch you off guard in high-consequence terrain like above a cliff or deep gully.

    (1/16/2022)

    Example: Wet loose avalanches on an east aspect near 6800ft on Hogback Mountain. You could see a few similar slides on Saturday. 

    Photo: Public Observation

Avalanche Discussion

This weekend will be very warm and sunny. While this can be nice weather for playing in the mountains, often these sources of heat work to destabilize the snowpack. Fortunately, we have a few things working in our favor to help minimize the danger. 

  • Long clear mid-winter nights should allow for a solid freeze of the snow surface despite above freezing temperatures. This will create a very strong crust that will take time to break down during the day. 
  • Light to moderate winds will keep the snow surface cool and further delay melting. 
  • This warm-up comes as an addition to a prolonged warm period since January 11th. As such, the snowpack has experienced plenty of warm temperatures and rain. The upper snowpack consists of mostly crusts and well-developed spring-like snow (melt forms). This snowpack structure should handle the additional warm period. 
  • It’s still January, so the days are short and the sun is lower in the sky. This will limit the number of slopes receiving direct sunshine. 

As a result, we expect another day of generally safe conditions. As the warm weather continues, into Sunday, we may begin to see that change. 

Besides avalanche hazard, firm icy surfaces in the morning could turn a slip into a long fall. Plan to avoid steep exposed slopes in the morning or make sure you have the tools and skills to deal with the potentially icy conditions.

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