Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

We’ve picked up several feet of new snow over the last three days and we will likely get another foot by Thursday afternoon. You will be able to trigger avalanches on steep, drifted, or ‘pillowed’ slopes. Stay away from big terrain and stick to places where the snow isn’t wind effected. The southern portion of the zone near Hwy 20 will get more snow and the danger will be HIGH – read the West Central forecast if you are on the Hwy 20 corridor. 

The danger will quickly spike to HIGH if the wind picks up.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Several feet of new snow and moderate to strong winds have created a patchwork of drifting patterns and shallow instabilities. Since January 2nd, the Heather Meadows weather station recorded ~4 inches water / ~46 inches of snow.  The weather forecast is calling for another inch of water, or around a foot of snow by Thursday afternoon. 

    We got a good look around the Bagley Lakes / Herman areas today. There is evidence of a small avalanche cycle late Sunday night or early Monday morning, and several small natural and human triggered avalanches today in the surficial wind affected snow.  These more recent wind slabs were soft, 6-15 inches deep, and in the D1-D2 range. 

    There are two obvious weak layers in the recent new snow (see pic in the media reel below). Thursday’s storm will keep them active and make the resulting avalanches a size larger – expect slab depth to be 15-25 inches by Thursday afternoon. 

    Most of our information is still from the lower and mid elevations. It's likely that upper elevation slabs are larger, more unpredictable, and more dangerous.

    Natural avalanches are a real possibility Thursday.  Avoid steep, wind loaded terrain – especially if the runout is consequential. 

    (1/5/2022)

    These small wind/storm slabs were tiggered in the near treeline band on Wednesday. Expect similar, but bigger avalanches Thursday as more snow falls. 

    Photo: Trautman

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3

    Two explosive triggered avalanches and two natural avalanches were triggered deep in the snowpack on the Shuksan Arm the week after Christmas. Check out one of these avalanches HERE. All of these avalanches occurred on steep, unsupported alpine terrain features. 

    The layer in question seems to be a layer of surface hoar which was buried prior to Christmas. We’ve had several storms since then and at this point the layer is probably between 4 and 7 feet deep. Although we don’t have any reports of larger avalanches occurring on this layer as a result of the recent storm load, visibility has been poor. 

    The take-home is that an even small possibility of very large avalanches triggered deep in the snowpack is another reason to steer clear of large, wind-loaded slopes and their run-out zones. 

    (1/1/2022)

    At the crown line of the deep persistent slab avalanche which occurred in the Baker backcountry on Friday 12/31. Note how large debris chunks are. 

    Photo: Irene Henninger

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