Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanches are unlikely, but rising snow levels and rain may make it possible to find isolated areas of wet, unstable snow in very steep terrain. Challenging travel conditions are also a hazard. Use caution to avoid falls on steep icy terrain and expect low snow coverage on southern aspects below treeline.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Remote weather stations around the East South recorded above freezing temperatures for four days. On Wednesday night, temperatures finally dropped below freezing, and the snowpack developed a melt-freeze crust on the surface. With quite a lot of time to adjust to above-average temperatures and crusts on the snow surface, the snowpack is likely set up to handle another warm storm impacting the region. However, forecasted snow levels of 8000ft by Thursday morning with moderate rain and high elevation snow may make it possible for wet loose avalanches in isolated areas on very steep terrain. If surface crusts break down, these avalanches could potentially be large. Be cautious of steep rock slabs still holding snow in overhead terrain. If you are sinking past your calves in unconsolidated wet snow, you may want to stick to less consequential terrain. 

    (1/16/2022)

    Wet loose avalanches on an east aspect near 6800ft on Hogback Mountain.

    Photo: Public Observation

Avalanche Discussion

 A frozen surface crust combined with recent avalanches cycles from early January gives us confidence that the snowpack has become generally stable. The upper snowpack contains alternating layers of firm crusts, weak wet snow, and strong rounded grains. There is some uncertainty as to how well the surface crusts and snowpack will hold up to warm temperatures and rain overnight.  We expect the snowpack to handle another warm rainy day well, but make sure you are looking for signs of unstable snow, such as recent avalanches or roller balls that entrain more snow as they roll downhill. You can also expect challenging travel conditions, including low snow coverage and various icy surfaces with both supportable and breakable crusts.

The snowpack experienced a significant and prolonged thaw MLK weekend, with a stretch of sunny skies and spring-like weather. The most notable effect of the warm-up was the decrease in snow height and snow cover on sun-exposed slopes and at low elevations. Check out the NWAC forecaster field report from Bootjack Rock for more details on conditions from Monday.

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