Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Expect dangerous conditions including avalanches that could catch you off-guard, especially on northwest through northeast aspects. Intense snowfall and strong winds Sunday night into Monday will make it easy to trigger avalanches in the newly fallen and drifted snow. Use caution on slopes steeper than 35 degrees and use quick tests to check how easily the new snow slides. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Expect enough new snow and wind that you will be able to trigger avalanches on slopes steeper than 35 degrees. Avoid leeward sides of ridges near and above treeline where you see the wind depositing new snow. Aside from these areas, the most dangerous slopes will be where 6 inches or more of new snow rests on weak facets or surface hoar. Watch for these older weak interfaces on all shaded, northeast through northwest aspects and on slopes below 4,700ft. You could be experiencing very dangerous conditions if you see these weak layers under the new snow, find test slopes that slide easily, break in surprising ways, or are triggered from a distance. In this case, stick to slopes 30 degrees or less and put a large buffer of terrain between where you travel and anywhere avalanches could start, run, or stop. Watch for natural avalanches coming down from overhead terrain, especially below leeward sides of ridges. 

    (12/25/2021)

    An example of a skier triggered storm slab avalanche (size D1) from earlier. 

    Photo: Stephen Semanski

Avalanche Discussion

1-1.5 feet of snow could accumulate by Monday evening with strong southwest to west winds. There's a decent bit of uncertainty around how well the new snow will bond, especially with the storm starting warm and cooling. Observers have consistently found near-surface facets on a variety of shaded, northerly slopes and surface hoar on similar aspects below 4,700ft. Even some sun-exposed slopes could hold potential weak layers at the new/old interface. Sunday's warm temperatures may have melted some of these weak surfaces, but it's too soon to tell if it will help the new snow bond. Approach steep slopes with an assessment mindset and be ready to move to lower-angled terrain. Check out recent observations from the Upper Nason creek, Stevens Pass sidecountry, Jim Hill, and the Yodelin area.

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