Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Very dangerous conditions are on tap for Monday, with deep snow and a number of weak layers that could all create large avalanches.  Avoid going on, or underneath steep slopes at upper elevations, and steer around steep slopes at lower elevations. You could trigger a storm slab up to 4ft deep. As the storm cycle continues, so does uncertainty regarding deeper weak layers. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Steer around open slopes 35 degrees and steeper until the snowpack has a chance to adjust to this hefty new load. On Saturday, two reports came in of human triggered avalanches at around 5,000ft. One of these was 200ft wide and 1.5-2ft deep. Any avalanche triggered in the recent snow could step down to crusts from New Years Day, 12/29, or a deeper to the crust from 12/21. The 12/21 crust may be found over 4ft deep, with weaker, dry snow just above it. With all of the uncertainty, it'll be best to stay off of slopes steep enough to avalanche. As you travel, take a look at which layers are failing and consider the consequences of even small pieces of steep terrain.  As you ascend in elevation or travel into wind affected terrain, remember avalanches could be deeper and more destructive the higher you go.

    Loose dry avalanches may run easily on Monday. Look for these fan-shaped slides that start from a point (also known as point releases). In big, steep terrain these could entrain lots of snow, and create large avalanches. 

    (1/2/2021) 200ft wide avalanche on a SW aspect of Round Mountain in the Hwy 2 Corridor.

Avalanche Discussion

We’re more than 6 days into a prolonged storm cycle at Stevens Pass. Snow continues to pile up, especially at mid and upper elevations. As the storm totals grow so does our uncertainty with recent crust layers. Any avalanche has the potential to entrain additional snow, grow larger and become destructive.

On Sunday, avalanche professionals observed a large (D2.5) avalanche off a southeast aspect in Moonlight, just east of the pass proper. Ski Patrol had good results with ski cuts, and reported a natural cycle of soft slabs overnight prior to Sunday. On Saturday morning, WSDOT avalanche team triggered some large slides down to the 12/21 crust. A few reports also came in on Saturday of slides being triggered on a suncrust from 12/29. These were on South aspects at 5,000ft, and one was 200ft wide on nearby Round Mountain. In short, there are plenty of recently buried weak layers, and they all demand respect. Even if the snow felt 'right side up' on Sunday, it may not be that way Monday, and the extra load is concerning for deeper crust layers. 

During the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, continue to follow the latest guidance from local, state, and federal health officials. Avoid unnecessary risks that could impact first responders and stress medical resources. Wear a mask when appropriate, practice social distancing, and consider recreating closer to home.

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