Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Can't stop, won't stop, but please stop, the current avalanche problem sure is persistent. There are reports of human triggered and/or natural avalanches every day, for the last six days. Unfortunately, we are still dealing with dangerous avalanche conditions. You can get out for a lovely day in the mountains, but take your time to make thoughtful route plans in advance, and continue to hold onto a conservative decision-making mindset. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    On steep slopes that haven't already avalanched, you can easily trigger persistent slabs over buried facets and faceted crusts.  Evidence of the problem is clear:  there has been an ongoing parade of natural and human triggered avalanches reported from all but the sunniest aspects all week.  Be wary of traveling below steep, connected slopes: many of these avalanches were triggered remotely from low angle terrain and we continue to observe natural releases from wind loading.   While slabs are generally soft and 1 to 2 feet thick below treeline,  they will be thicker and denser in wind drifted terrain at higher elevations.  

    In much of the SE Mountains, this avalanche problem is mostly small in size at lower elevations and allowing for MODERATE avalanche danger at those elevations. Remember that even a small avalanche can pile deeply into a terrain trap, or push you into trees and exposed rocks. 

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday was the first relatively quiet day for observations, with only Zach's coming in. Reports of continued collapses, a remotely triggered avalanche, and a natural avalanche, about sums it up. While over in Marble, there was a large natural avalanche on the North Face of Whitehouse Mountain, and closer to Aspen another large natural avalanche in Highlands Bowl. 

The prolonged drought through early December created one of the more fragile weak layers we've ever seen. Over the last week we've now watched slabs build onto of those weak layers. Even in wind-sheltered slopes, where the snow is soft and doesn't feel very slabby, you can easily trigger an avalanche on slopes that haven't already flushed (See video). The dangers are most pronounced at all elevations in areas that got more snow last weekend (the Northwest Mountains and bordering terrain such as Mount Emmons, Coney's, and Snodgrass), and in terrain that has seen recent wind-loading.  

Yesterday's wind slab avalanche problem has now been dropped for today. Last night's winds saw a decrease, and most of the snow available for transport has already been transported. Those lingering wind slabs are expected to now be stiff and stubborn to trigger. The persistent slab avalanche problem is also the least likely to encounter on these aspects due to an isolated distribution of those persistent week layers. You can see the distribution of those weak layers in this observation on December 12th just before we started building slabs ontop. If you can find enough snow to ride on these aspects they would be a good spot to consider. Or maybe make a highly informed decision on other aspects that have already avalanched and refilled with enough snow to ride. 

Regions covered