Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Up to 9 or more inches of new snowfall over the past 24 hrs has built storm slabs and stressed buried weak layers in our snowpack. With more snow in the forecast today human-triggered avalanches are likely. Avalanches that fail on or into buried weak layers will be large, destructive, and unsurvivable. Triggering a small storm slab today will only increase the stress over those weak layers further. Staying off of slopes greater than 30 degrees and out from underneath large open terrain and runouts will help mitigate the hazard and uncertainty today. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Since just before Valentine's Day we have added 20+ inches of new snow over a very concerning snowpack structure. This is important to note because we didn't see much feedback from the initial 12 inches of snow that fell on Feb 14 which makes us worried that we are crossing the threshold for what these weak layers have been capable of withstanding. Avalanches that fail on these buried weak layers will be large and unsurvivable. In most cases, it will likely take the majority of the season's snowpack with it. With additional snowfall in the forecast today it's smart to give this problem a wide berth and avoid being on, connected to, or underneath slopes greater than 30 degrees. Natural avalanches are possible today.  

    Our overall snowpack depth is all over the place. The areas to be aware of are areas where the snowpack is thinnest. We're talking about near and below treeline and previous slopes that have avalanched. Shallower snowpacks will harbor more advanced facets and will be easier to trigger as a skier or rider. Areas of deeper snowpacks will be a bit more stubborn but if triggered will produce a very large unsurvivable avalanche. Look for shooting cracks and collapses to indicate the presence of this instability. 

    As always during times of uncertainty and high consequence, we can limit our exposure with our terrain selection. Sticking to terrain no greater than 30 degrees and staying out from underneath large open terrain will help mitigate your exposure to increasing the avalanche danger. 

    Multiple faceted weak layers exist in the snowpack, with some closer to the surface. The weak faceted snow closer to the ground continues to remain a concern.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    9+ inches of new snow over the past 24 hrs has built storm slabs on all aspects and elevations. This storm system hasn't been accompanied by strong winds, but cold temperatures and low-density snow make for easily transported snow from winds as low as 10 mph. Expect to see storm slab depths up to 12+ inches in areas that may have seen some wind such as the leeward sides of ridgelines above treeline. Slopes that have experienced even a little bit of stiffening from the wind will be the most sensitive. Look for small cracks in the snow while you're skinning as an indication that the new snow is cohesive enough to produce a storm slab avalanche. Storm slab avalanches today will be small and soft but will continue to stress buried weak layers that are capable of producing large, destructive avalanches. For that reason, I would stay off of or underneath slopes greater than 30 degrees today. Also, be mindful of dry loose snow avalanches that may occur near and below treeline and manage terrain traps appropriately. 

    A small storm slab avalanche from Feb 14.

Avalanche Discussion

Over the past 24 hrs, we have received 9+ inches of new snow from about 0.7 inches of SWE. Since Feb 14 we have received over 20 inches of new snow. That's a pretty significant load to add on top of a concerning snowpack structure that has been producing large avalanches for most of the season. We didn't see a whole lot of activity after the initial 12 inches of new snow we got around Valentine's Day. Although that can be an indication that we are gaining some strength in those buried weak layers I still don't trust it.  They're not that strong, and adding a new slab, an additional 9+ inches of new snow with more in the forecast means we got several red flags keeping our mindset conservative. 

Areas where the snowpack is thinner such as sheltered near and below treeline terrain and/or slopes that have previously avalanched should be especially suspect. These slopes, due to their shallow depth, will harbor more well-developed facets and be easier for a skier or rider to affect. During times of uncertainty and high consequence, we can limit our exposure with our terrain selection. Sticking to terrain no greater than 30 degrees and staying out from underneath large open terrain will help mitigate your exposure to the increasing avalanche danger. 

Unfortunately, it continues to be a tough month for avalanche fatalities with several additional accidents over the past week. We are approaching that time of year where I think a lot of us are used to finally being able to, or at least looking forward to, expanding into the terrain we've been staring at all winter. The temptation is especially difficult when we just received close to two feet of blower powder! I promise though, the excellent skiing conditions aren't going anywhere anytime soon, we got cold temps and light winds for a little while. Let's allow our poor snowpack structure to play its hand regarding this new load before we step out into consequential terrain. Stay safe out there gang!

 

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