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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 15th, 2012–Feb 16th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Purcells.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

Cloud should move into the region overnight and precipitation is expected to begin by about noon on Thursday. Western parts of the region may get 10 cm combined with moderate to strong southerly winds. The freezing level may rise up to 1300 metres during the day in the west of the region. The eastern parts of the region should see freezing levels rise to about 700 metres and drop back to near valley bottom overnight. Another ridge is forecast for Friday that should bring mostly clear skies and light winds during the day. The next Pacific frontal system is expected to move inland from the coast during the evening. Forecast amounts for the overnight period and during the day on Saturday are light, probably about 10 cm in total.

Avalanche Summary

A natural ice fall resulted in a size 2.5 avalanche

Snowpack Summary

Widespread surface hoar has been buried by a couple of cm of new snow in most of the region. A melt-freeze crust has developed on southerly aspects at all elevations. North and east aspects continue to have dry snow and some surface sloughing in steep terrain. Basal facets have not been reactive, but operators continue to monitor this layer in tests. Triggering this deep persistent weak layer is unlikely, but shallow snowpack areas or shallow weak areas adjacent to deeper wind loaded slopes are suspect locations.

Problems

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.