Northwest Mountains

You can still trigger a deadly avalanche on many aspects and elevations.  Areas of increased concern can be found on recently drifted terrain at upper elevations, sunny slopes with moist snow surfaces later in the day, and features with highly variable snow depths.  A slow steady trickle of natural avalanches has been observed in the Northwest mountains for over a week. Recent avalanches have failed wide and deep, running surprisingly long distances.  Even though the chances of you triggering an avalanche have decreased in recent days, the consequences remain deadly serious if you do.

The past week brought a steady stream of natural avalanches due to wind-loading and warming at upper elevations.  Yesterday finally brought a reprieve from the natural avalanche activity around the area despite the continued loading from westerly winds.  The snowpack on drifted features is slowly catching its breath from the onslaught of loading.  This will lead to a diminished chance for natural activity today.  Human-triggered avalanches will slowly become less likely than during the wind-loading period, but it would be prudent to remain suspicious of recently drifted terrain features particularly in the Southeast Mountains.  Air temperatures are forecasted to be slightly cooler today than yesterday, but wind speeds will also be reduced which may lead to the moistening of snow surfaces on sunny slopes.  If skies remain clear, and winds mellow out today, then you should expect the potential for minor Wet Loose activity from steep rocky slopes on the southern half of the compass later in the day (example of small Wet Loose avalanches from yesterday).  These small Wet Loose avalanches could act as a trigger for deeper Persistent Slab avalanches (an example of this from two days ago on WSC Peak).

The overall snowpack stability trend is slowly improving around Crested Butte.  Weak layers from December and January are adjusting to the prolonged loading period over the past month.  Signs of instability have waned and are now becoming the exception and not the norm.  As obvious clues to instability disappear, you may be tempted to step out into steeper and more consequential terrain.  Continue to consider the consequences of being wrong and not just the likelihood.  Yes, it is becoming less likely to trigger an avalanche, but the size remains dangerously large.  Choosing safer slopes remains a bit of a challenge but here are a few things to consider.  Slopes that have recently avalanched and shed their slabs offer safer options, but may also offer poor riding conditions.  Slopes with deep and uniform snow coverage offer a decreased chance of triggering an avalanche, but this requires a detailed history of a given slope this season.  Slopes with deeper and uniform coverage are more likely to be found in the Northwest Mountains.  Identifying trigger points or shallow spots on a given slope is a challenging task and is often difficult to do (Take a look at this recent video by Zach Guy for more insight).

You can always choose slopes 30 degrees or less that are not connected to or below steeper terrain for the safest recreation opportunities.  Regardless of your downhill routes, continue to choose conservative up tracks so you do not expose your entire group to avalanche hazards.