Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Fresh snow and strong upper elevation winds are leading to a rise in the avalanche danger. Where you find around 6" of new snow, over a surgery weak base, keep an eye out for the potential to encounter a shallow soft slab that could be human triggered in steep terrain. On slopes with additional wind-loading, those slabs will grow in size and become more problematic. Take your time assessing the avalanche conditions if you are entering steep terrain today and really stay heads up when traveling near wind-loaded terrain features. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Fresh snow and strong westerly winds have combined to create a new wind slab avalanche problem. These slabs are expected to average 6" to 12" thick and have formed on a variety of weak old snow surfaces. Remotely triggering this avalanche problem is also a possibility as you approach wind-loaded terrain features. Plan ahead and use caution approaching terrain features like the lee sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded gulleys for example. This avalanche problem will be the most widespread and problematic at the above treeline elevations. At near and below treeline elevations, these slabs will not completely disappear but simply become smaller in size and more isolated in their distribution. 

    Example of a shallow wind slab on the lee side of a ridgeline. 

Avalanche Discussion

As of 4am, overnight snow totals look to be averaging 2" to 4". Schofield Pass was reporting .5SWE which should translate to around 6" of snow. Looking further east of CB, the Upper Taylor weather station isn't showing new snow, but may simply be too low in elevation for this storm. Available moisture sticks around after sunrise today and these numbers should climb from their 4am recordings. 

The wind is another big component of this recent storm. Scarps ridge at 12,000ft has recorded westerly winds consistently blowing around 25mph and gusting into the 40's. CBMR's weather station at 11,000ft is recording winds a notch lower, with gusts pushing into the 20's. 

The wind slab avalanche problem will be the most notable thing to manage today. In more sheltered locations at near treeline elevations, I have lower confidence on whether we will see much for a shallow storm slab avalanche problem. Northerly to easterly facing slopes have an exceptionally weak snowpack, and if you are finding around 6" of new snow in those areas, stay observant for the potential of human triggering shallow soft slabs on steep slopes even in wind-sheltered terrain. 

 

 

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