Human-triggered avalanches will become possible as new snow accumulates near and above treeline later in the day. Wind slabs may be easy to trigger in isolated areas of steep terrain. Poor visibility and many hazards in the fall line will complicate route finding and increase the consequences of even a small avalanche. Keep in mind that rocks, runnels and crevasses emerged as the spring snowpack melted and these obstacles may be just covered by the new snow. Natural avalanches are unlikely today though may become possible this evening and overnight if we receive the upper end of forecasted snowfall totals. Avalanche danger is MODERATE today and will potentially rise to CONSIDERABLE tonight as more snowfall makes natural avalanches possible.
The summer Lionhead Trail is open for travel, though the winter Lionhead Route will be a better choice if we receive over 6-8” new snow today. Crampons, not microspikes, and an ice axe will be needed for safe travel, especially across the traverse at treeline on the summer trail.
Regulations on Federal public lands remain in place regarding protection from the coronavirus and it’s variants. These regulations require the use of a face mask when social distancing is not possible. Please plan to wear a mask in busy areas like the deck and courtyard at Hermit Lake and the floor of Tuckerman Ravine on a busy day.
The lower half of Sherburne ski trail was mostly rocks and mud until the new snow began falling today. A rope marks the current closure, currently located across the trail at crossover 7. Skiing below that point is likely to remain thin through most of today. Please move to the Tuckerman Ravine Trail and walk down when necessary to avoid damaging the trail.
New snow may accumulate deeply enough to become sensitive to a skier or rider. Density changes in the snow or wind affected snow are likely to provide the cohesion needed for a slab to release, especially in steeper terrain. These slabs could carry and even bury a person in a terrain trap. Shooting cracks and small failures on test slopes should signal a change of plans for you.
Recent melting has left our fetch an inefficient one for storing and releasing snow for transportation by the wind. Recent field observations confirm that the alpine zone was bare rocks, alpine vegetation and krummholz. Even with a limited fetch, wind will be able to cross-load slopes and may move snow in surprising ways given the uncommon easterly wind direction. Wind slabs are likely to be limited in size but enough uncertainty remains in the snowfall totals and density figures that wind loading should be a bright, red flag waving in your mind this afternoon. If snow is actively blowing around, you are much more likely to trigger an avalanche.
I know what you are thinking. "It was a short season and I really want to go ski some fresh snow". I know because I am feeling the same thing. Remind yourself that if you try to ski in avalanche terrain today or tomorrow, you will be trying to cheat the avalanche problems. If you find snow deep enough to float you above the firm snow beneath, you will be relying on luck to keep you from being caught and carried. Unfortunately, we currently have limited terrain options in our forecast area to ride this snowfall. The best base with the fewest hazards that you are likely to find exists at ski resorts that allow skinning. Lower angled smooth slopes without the rocks and water bars that pepper the Sherburne, Gulf of Slides, Cog and Ammo trails are likely to be your best bets for fun skiing today. If Hillman’s, Left Gully and the GoS are on your mind, be sure to bring a trusted partner. Perhaps the best plan will be to wait for this storm to play out and for the new snow to pass through the sloppy stage this weekend before returning to a stable corn corn cycle next week. Cold nights and warm days this coming week may produce the best harvest yet this year, though skiing to the car may be short lived.
The typical spring hazards emerged in recent weeks and should remain a player in your travel plans. These hazards include:
_____________
Your avalanche, snowpack, or weather observations are extremely valuable to the forecasters at MWAC. Help create a more accurate avalanche forecast by submitting your observations here.
The Harvard Cabin is now closed for the season. There is no access to the breezeway at HoJos.
Please Remember:
For more information contact the US Forest Service Snow Rangers, AMC visitor services staff at the Pinkham Notch Visitor Center, or the caretakers at Hermit Lake Shelters or seasonally at the Harvard Cabin (generally December 1 through March 31). The Mount Washington Ski Patrol is also available on spring weekends.
