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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 9th, 2013–Jan 10th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Confidence

Fair - Due to limited field observations

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: A ridge of high pressure will build in for Thursday. The ridge is interrupted on Friday as a weak disturbance pushes through. Thursday: Mainly sunny. Light northwest winds. Freezing level at valley bottom.Friday: A chance of flurries or light snow. Light northwest winds. Freezing level at valley bottom.Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. Freezing level remains at valley bottom.  

Avalanche Summary

There is one new report of a skier controlled size 2 avalanche in the northern part of the region. The slide released on a steep convex roll below treeline and likely failed on the late December persistent weakness.

Snowpack Summary

50-100cm of storm snow has fallen in the past 10 days or so. Weaknesses exist within and under this recent storm snow including touchy surface hoar and/or facets from the end of December under it all. Recent strong southwesterly to easterly winds have set up wind slabs in many exposed lee areas. A deeper surface hoar layer was buried at the beginning of December and is now down well over a metre, but there are no recent reports of activity on this layer. Near the base of the snowpack, a crust/facet layer continues to concern local avalanche professionals. This weakness is unlikely to be triggered by a single person, but it remains possible with a very heavy load (e.g. cornice fall) or from a thin-spot trigger point.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.