Avalanche danger is LOW for all elevations and aspects. Isolated areas of wind slab and persistent slab instability may exist, especially in complex or extreme terrain. Normal caution is advised.
For the most part, lingering wind slabs from Tuesday have gained strength and have become very difficult to trigger. Lingering instability is most likely to be encountered near and above treeline on NW-N-NE aspects, especially in complex or extreme terrain where stabilization rates can be slower and slopes may be unsupported above large rocks and cliff bands.
The near crust facet layer located at the base of the recent storm snow is now buried 1.5 to 4+ feet deep. In many areas, snowpit tests have indicated that this weak layer has adjusted to the snow load above it. Human triggering of this weak layer has become difficult, especially in areas on NW-N-NE aspects where the weak layer is deeply buried. Triggering is most likely to occur in a location where the weak layer is closer to the surface. This is most commonly found in complex or extreme terrain where rock features can bring the weak layer closer to the snow surface creating shallow snow trigger points.
Observations made yesterday on Rubicon Peak (West Shore Tahoe area) revealed little in the way of snowpack instability. Snowpit tests investigating wind slabs and persistent slabs that had been reactive in this area three days prior indicated an overall improvement in snowpack stability. A short period of rapid warming was observed during the morning hours, but was shut down by increasing afternoon cloud cover and snow showers. A few isolated roller balls were observed on SE aspects below 7,000'. A thin layer of wet surface snow was noted on all aspects below 7,600' at 2 pm. That thin layer of wet snow is expected to have formed a melt-freeze surface crust last night.
Another short period of rapid warming is expected this morning. Below average air temperatures and increasing afternoon cloud cover are expected to help keep areas of wet snow instability to a minimum again today. Isolated areas of roller balls and small pinwheels may occur on all aspects as snow falls off of trees and rocks. The expected minimal amount of loose wet instability that occurs today is not expected to involve loose wet avalanches. If cloud cover increases slower than forecast or air temperatures warm more than forecast, the amount of loose wet instability will be greater than forecast.
