Avalanche forecast

Central Sierra Nevada

Sierra Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 12 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Above 9000 ft. in below, near, and above treeline terrain, human-triggered avalanches may remain possible on some NW-N-NE aspects due to persistent slabs on slopes 34 degrees and steeper. Pockets of MODERATE avalanche danger exist in these areas. Higher elevation northerly facing slopes with the most snow represent the most likely places to find persistent slabs and the places where people want to recreate. Don't let early season excitement overrule good judgment and decision making.

Avalanche problems

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3

    Even though no avalanche activity has occurred on the Dec. 2 facets, some snowpit tests on northerly aspects above 9000 ft. continue to indicate that if this layer breaks the resulting fracture can propagate along the persistent weak layer. Variability associated with where this layer exists, how weak it is, and how continuous it is increases the uncertainty surrounding this avalanche problem. Digging a quick pit can tell whether or not the facets exist at a specific location, but that data may not apply to the next slope over or even to a different part of the same slope.

    Variability plus uncertainty plus persistent slabs makes conservative terrain selection and decision making essential. While many people may get lucky on a slope, that does not mean everyone will. On slopes where this weak layer exists and is continuous enough, one trigger point is all it takes for a person to start a fracture that could result in a large dangerous avalanche. Before committing to a line on NW-N-NE aspects above 9000 ft. evaluate the snowpack, terrain, and consequences carefully. Remember that observations like slope cuts and previous tracks do not indicate stability when dealing with persistent slabs. A slope breaking to the ground often represents the only warning this avalanche problem gives. Avoiding areas where these layers might exist or sticking to lower angle slopes without steeper terrain above them are the only mitigation options for persistent slabs.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2

    Triggering a wind slab avalanche has become unlikely but not impossible. Isolated human triggerable wind slabs may linger on slopes above cliffs, in gullies or couloirs, or in other complex or extreme terrain. Wind slabs avalanches on slopes above 9000 ft. where the Dec. 2nd facet layer still exists could step down into those layers as well.

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday in the Mt. Rose backcountry observations from Relay Peak and Tamarack Peak both showed continued settlement and consolidation in the recent snow. Snowpit tests, ski cuts on test slopes, hand pits, and general observations did not reveal any signs of instability associated with the recent snow or lingering wind slabs. Snow depth in these areas ranged from 50 to 90 cm. 

On the other hand, snowpit data, hand pits, and probing all revealed that the Dec. 2nd facets still exist on the northerly aspects above 9200 ft. This layer varied in thickness, hardness, and in how well developed the facets were. Tests on this layer also provided inconsistent results. Some tests indicated that fracture propagation through this layer has become unlikely; however, the majority of tests showed that fractures can still travel along this persistent weak layer (videos).

Below 8000 ft. snow cover remains limited.

Regions covered