Avalanche forecast

South Rockies

Feb 22 – 23, 2015Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Isolated pockets of wind slab in unusual locations may become more susceptible to human triggering as upper elevation temperatures warm Monday afternoon.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–2
    Thin fresh wind slabs may be found in unusual locations.  Potentially warm alpine temperatures Monday afternoon may increase the likelihood of human triggering.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    2–5
    Large avalanches are unlikely in most places but may be possible in the high alpine where a large trigger in a thin rocky spot could cause an avalanche on a buried persistent week layer.

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

Monday: Clear skies, light N winds, no precipitation, freezing level rising to 1700m. Tuesday: Increasing cloud cover, light W winds at valley bottom, strong NW winds at ridgetop. No precipitation, freezing level rising to 1500m. Tuesday Night: 5 to 10cm, freezing level at Valley Bottom. Wednesday: Broken skies, light variable winds, 1 to 2cm, freezing level at valley bottom.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported recently.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 10 cm of new snow may now cover a thick, solid crust that extents up to 2100m and firm wind pressed surface higher than that. The recent winds have been light to moderate from the northeast and I suspect that you may find isolated fresh wind slabs forming in reverse loaded lee features on southern aspects. Below 2100m the crust is effectively capping the snowpack and protecting a couple of buried persistent week layers. Two layers of surface hoar can be found down between 50 and 80cm. Recent snow pack test indicate that these layers are unlikely to fail but could propagate widely if they do. I suspect that at upper elevations where these layers are not protected by the surface crust it may still be possible to trigger an avalanche from a thin or rocky spot. The mid-December crust is becoming harder to find but where it does exist (mainly at treeline elevations) it is over a meter down.

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