Confidence
Fair - Due to variable weather conditions
Weather Forecast
Sunday the transition to a more westerly weather pattern begins bringing moderate to strong west winds to the region. By Monday a polar front will allow some cooler temperatures to return to the forecast area. Precipitation amounts for early next week remain difficult to predict as there is uncertainty if the active weather will impact the south rockies or remain south of the US border.Sunday: Cloudy with sunny breaks and a chance of some light precipitation. Winds will pick up and become moderate to strong from the west. Alpine temperature -7 and freezing levels rising to 1600m.Monday: 3-7cm is possible in the south of the forecast region and winds will be from the west in the moderate range. Alpine temperature of -6 and freezing level should remain at valley bottom.Tuesday: Increasing precipitation amounts are possible, but there is not a lot of agreement amongst forecast models yet.
Avalanche Summary
A solar induced natural cycle occurred Saturday with loose wet avalanches out of steep sun exposed terrain. Nearest neighbors in the Lizard Range reported some natural cornice falls during a period of rapid cooling overnight (Friday/Saturday).
Snowpack Summary
Storm snow from earlier in the week has continued to settle at all elevations. There is still loose snow available for transport, and forecast winds on Sunday could form new cornices and windslabs. Snow at lower elevations and sun exposed slopes became moist with Saturday's warm temperatures and clear skies. 20-70cm below the surface is a supportive rain crust that exists up to 1900m. The lack of reports involving this interface suggests an improving bond. Below this the mid and lower pack are well settled and strong.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.