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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 8th, 2016–Feb 9th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies.

I would make conservative terrain choices and minimize my exposure to overhead hazard while the region's complex snowpack reacts to the spring-like temperatures.

Confidence

Moderate - Wind effect is extremely variable

Weather Forecast

A strong temperature inversion persist with an above freezing layer in the alpine. Valley cloud will linger bellow 1500 to 1800m. TUESDAY: sunny in the alpine, a freezing level of 3600m, light southwesterly winds. WEDNESDAY: sunny with scattered clouds, a freezing level of 2500m, light to moderate westerly winds. THURSDAY: partly cloudy, freezing level of 2500m, light westerly winds.

Avalanche Summary

New new avalanche activity has been reported.  However, in the north of the regions conditions are likely to be similar to K-country right now where several large (size 2-3) skier triggered avalanches released in wind loaded features over the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

Moist snow can be found on solar aspects and a thin melt freeze crust may form on the surface overnight. Strong south west winds have resulted in widespread wind effect. Thick, stiff wind slabs can be found in the alpine and treeline as well as in isolated open pockets bellow treeline. Cornices have grown significantly. In the front ranges, the wind effect may be more extreme with widespread strastugi being reported in the alpine around Castle Mountain. In some areas you may find a supportive crust down 30cm that extends up to around 1900m. A layer of buried surface hoar can be found between 50 and 100cm down and remains a concern. The snowpack rests on a weak crust/facet layer from early December.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.