Warm temperatures and sunshine are the main drivers of avalanche hazard at the moment. Minimize your exposure to large slopes if the snowpack is becoming moist or wet.
Confidence
Poor - Due to the number of field observations
Weather Forecast
Saturday: Freezing level hovering near 2000m. Strong W winds at treeline, strong to extreme W winds at ridgetop. Cloud cover decreasing throughout the day. No significant precipitation expected. Sunday: Freezing level staying near 2100m. Strong W winds at treeline, strong to extreme W winds at ridgetop. Partly cloudy skies. No significant precipitation expected.Monday: Freezing level starting near 2000m, rising to 2500m in the afternoon. Moderate SW winds at treeline. Strong W/SW winds at ridgetop. Mostly clear skies. No significant precipitation expected.
Avalanche Summary
No recent observations. In the neighboring Lizard Range Thursday was filled with natural loose wet activity to size 1.5 between 1700m and 2100m on N/NE faces. One natural size 2 wet slab was also recorded on an unknown aspect. On Friday our field team reported continued widespread loose wet avalanches and wet slabs to size 2 that were entraining significant mass as they moved downhill.
Snowpack Summary
Ongoing warm temperatures are helping to rapidly settle the snowpack at and below treeline. Ongoing SW winds have likely left lingering wind slabs on north through east facing features. The mid-March rain crust is down 30-60cm and has shown a good bond with snow above. Old persistent weak layers are still intact in the mid and lower snowpack. There is potential for these layers to wake up depending on how much rain and how warm it gets. Recent cornice growth has been reported and these cornices may become fragile with warming.
Problems
Wet Slabs
Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.