Avalanche forecast

South Rockies

Mar 27 – 28, 2015Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Warm temperatures and sunshine are the main drivers of avalanche hazard at the moment. Minimize your exposure to large slopes if the snowpack is becoming moist or wet.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–3
    Expect loose wet slides on steep sun-exposed slopes during the day. These loose wet avalanches could gain considerable mass. 

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–3
    Continued warm temperatures and potential periods of sunshine could trigger wet slab avalanches, which may move slow but can run surprisingly far.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    3–5
    Continued warming and solar radiation could make deeper persistent weaknesses more susceptible to triggering, especially and sun-exposed and thinly snow-covered slopes.

Confidence

Poor - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Saturday: Freezing level hovering near 2000m. Strong W winds at treeline, strong to extreme W winds at ridgetop. Cloud cover decreasing throughout the day. No significant precipitation expected. Sunday: Freezing level staying near 2100m. Strong W winds at treeline, strong to extreme W winds at ridgetop. Partly cloudy skies. No significant precipitation expected.Monday: Freezing level starting near 2000m, rising to 2500m in the afternoon. Moderate SW winds at treeline. Strong W/SW winds at ridgetop. Mostly clear skies. No significant precipitation expected.

Avalanche Summary

No recent observations. In the neighboring Lizard Range Thursday was filled with natural loose wet activity to size 1.5 between 1700m and 2100m on N/NE faces. One natural size 2 wet slab was also recorded on an unknown aspect. On Friday our field team reported continued widespread loose wet avalanches and wet slabs to size 2 that were entraining significant mass as they moved downhill.

Snowpack Summary

Ongoing warm temperatures are helping to rapidly settle the snowpack at and below treeline. Ongoing SW winds have likely left lingering wind slabs on north through east facing features. The mid-March rain crust is down 30-60cm and has shown a good bond with snow above. Old persistent weak layers are still intact in the mid and lower snowpack. There is potential for these layers to wake up depending on how much rain and how warm it gets. Recent cornice growth has been reported and these cornices may become fragile with warming.

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