Confidence
Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain for the entire period
Weather Forecast
A drying trend is expected to evolve throughout the forecast period as ridge of high pressure becomes firmly established over the region. Friday and Saturday should see a mix of sun and cloud; however, Sunday is more likely to see generally clear skies. Overnight cooling with a strong daytime solar influence becomes more likely throughout the period. Winds are expected to remain generally light and west/northwest.
Avalanche Summary
A few size 1 loose snow avalanches were reported running out of steep headwall features. No other avalanche have been reported.
Snowpack Summary
Dribs and drabs of recent snowfall have been redistributed into softer wind slabs at higher elevations. These accumulations overlie old wind slabs in exposed areas, settled storm snow or spotty surface hoar in more sheltered terrain, and a crust on previously sun-exposed slopes. A variable interface (surface hoar/facets/sun crust) was buried on Jan 23 and is down about 20-40cm. In most locations it now appears to be well bonded.The lower snowpack is generally well-settled. Cornices in the region are reported to be well developed and loom over heavily used slopes. These cornices deserve our respect, especially with clear skies and warming forecast for the weekend.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.