Spring conditions mean you should anticipate a daily cycle of loose snow avalanches on south-facing slopes.
Confidence
Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Weather Forecast
This region should remain dry on Tuesday. Freezing levels are expected to go to around 2800 m, with cloud but also good periods of sunshine. Winds light southeasterly. On Wednesday, increasing cloud cover will cool things slightly, but freezing levels are still expected to be around 2500m. Trace amounts of precipitation could occur later in the day. On Thursday, light precipitation is expected, which may fall as rain in many areas. Freezing levels falling through the day from 2000 m initially to 1500 m by the end of the day. Winds moderate southeasterly.
Avalanche Summary
On Sunday, a very large (size 3) naturally-triggered avalanche was reported on an east aspect at 2700 m that initiated on the late March crust and then stepped down to glacier ice. Loose snow avalanches up to size 1.5 were reported. Several cornice releases were also noted up to size 1. In one instance, a slab pulled out on the slope below as a result of the cornice drop.
Snowpack Summary
60 cm of recent storm snow is reported to be generally settling well with recent warm temperatures and generally light winds. However, operators are still reporting moderate, "resistant" shears within the recent storm snow. Additionally, a crust that formed near the end of March is a concern, particularly on steep, solar aspects. With prolonged warming, there is the possibility for wet slabs to release on this layer, or potentially on deeper layers (including the ground), as melt water starts to percolate through the snowpack. Cornices are large in some areas and drooping with recent warm temperatures.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Wet Slabs
Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.