Avalanche forecast

Cariboos

Apr 9 – 10, 2012Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Spring conditions mean you should anticipate a daily cycle of loose snow avalanches on south-facing slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–5
    Large cornices exist in alpine terrain and they may pop off with warmer temperatures and intense solar radiation. A failure could be destructive by itself, and could also trigger an avalanche on the slope below.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–4
    Loose wet avalanches are likely on sun exposed slopes during the day. It's possible that loose slides could initiate something deeper in the snowpack.

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–6
    Wet slabs become more likely during periods of prolonged warm temperatures and/or sunshine.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday, a very large (size 3) naturally-triggered avalanche was reported on an east aspect at 2700 m that initiated on the late March crust and then stepped down to glacier ice. Loose snow avalanches up to size 1.5 were reported. Several cornice releases were also noted up to size 1. In one instance, a slab pulled out on the slope below as a result of the cornice drop.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

This region should remain dry on Tuesday. Freezing levels are expected to go to around 2800 m, with cloud but also good periods of sunshine. Winds light southeasterly. On Wednesday, increasing cloud cover will cool things slightly, but freezing levels are still expected to be around 2500m. Trace amounts of precipitation could occur later in the day. On Thursday, light precipitation is expected, which may fall as rain in many areas. Freezing levels falling through the day from 2000 m initially to 1500 m by the end of the day. Winds moderate southeasterly.

Snowpack Summary

60 cm of recent storm snow is reported to be generally settling well with recent warm temperatures and generally light winds. However, operators are still reporting moderate, "resistant" shears within the recent storm snow. Additionally, a crust that formed near the end of March is a concern, particularly on steep, solar aspects. With prolonged warming, there is the possibility for wet slabs to release on this layer, or potentially on deeper layers (including the ground), as melt water starts to percolate through the snowpack. Cornices are large in some areas and drooping with recent warm temperatures.

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