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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 19th, 2019–Jan 20th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Full depth skier triggered avalanche are a real possibility. Avoid thin terrain where the snowpack is weak.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Another 5cm of snow is forecast overnight with temps on Sunday looking to be slightly cooler around -10C.  Winds are forecast to be light out of the SW under a partly cloudy sky.  Dribs and drabs of snow are forecast this week but no significant accumulations.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous loose dry slides out of steeper terrain up to sz 1.5.  Besides this, no new slab activity was observed.

Snowpack Summary

5-10cm of new snow over the past 48hrs at treeline and above.  This snow is now burying the Jan 17th surface hoar and sun crust layers that were being found up to 2300m. This will be important to note later as the winter continues.  Otherwise our main concern is still for the weak basal layers under the Dec 10th interface down 80-110cm.  Thin areas we were able to get easy results and the tests also indicate that this layer will likely propagate across a given terrain feature given the widespread nature of the basal problem.  We backed off steeper terrain on Saturday due to variable snowpack depths and are still very cautious in and under bigger terrain.  Sheltered areas were offering some good skiing!

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.