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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 11th, 2019–Jan 12th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

How warm will it get? A rapidly warming snowpack can quickly lose strength and stress buried instabilities. Best to choose conservative terrain and be aware that conditions may deteriorate through the day limiting your exit plans.

Confidence

Low - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Light south-southeast wind gusting moderate. Alpine temps reaching +1C, freezing level rising above 1000 m, weak temperature inversion.SATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Light southeast wind gusting strong. Alpine temps reaching +2, freezing level above 2000 m.SUNDAY: Cloudy with sunny periods. Light south-southeast wind with moderate gusts. Alpine temps reaching +4C, freezing level 2000 m.MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Light mostly south variable wind. Alpine temps reaching +6, freezing level above 2500 m, alpine temperature inversion.More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, a recent natural wind slab avalanches to size 1.5 were observed on wind-loaded and cross-loaded terrain.On Thursday morning in the neighboring Sea to Sky region, a natural storm slab avalanche cycle size 2-3 was reported on rocky features around 2000 m and loose wet avalanches were observed below 1700 m. Explosives triggered numerous size 1-2 storm slabs with good propagation across features.

Snowpack Summary

Warming temperatures and moderate to strong south winds have have redistributed recent snow and promoted settlement. Freezing levels pushed above 1600 m on Thursday with no overnight recovery into Friday. Around the Coquihalla, the top 30-40 cm recent snow sits on a thick 10-15 cm crust up to 1550 m. This crust is not found in the north of the region.Professionals continue to monitor two suspicious layers in the mid-pack. A surface hoar layer buried December 26 is down 70-100 cm and has produced harder results in snowpack tests. Down 120-150 cm in a surface hoar and crust layer buried early December. This layer consist of surface hoar (feathery crystals) in sheltered areas and a sun crust on steep south facing slopes. The surface hoar is reported to be most prominent on north and east aspects at treeline, and has been well reported in the southern part of the region in areas like the Coquihalla Summit and Manning Park. In the lower snowpack, a crust/facet (sugar snow) layer may still be reactive to heavy loads such as a cornice fall in isolated areas.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.