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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 17th, 2017–Mar 18th, 2017

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Snowfall amounts are uncertain for Friday night. Danger ratings are based on 20-30 cm of new snow, but be prepared to scale back your plans if you see greater accumulations.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Storm starts with 20-30 cm, strong southwest winds, and freezing level around 1000 m.SATURDAY: Lingering flurries in the morning with freezing level briefly climbing to 1300 m, followed by cooling in the afternoon and moderate west winds. SUNDAY: Clearing skies following the storm as treeline temperatures drop to around -5 C, light winds.MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light winds, treeline temperatures around -3 C.

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, two large size 2.5-3 avalanches were reported north of Grouse Mountain in a MIN post. (See video here.) The debris was several days old and likely occurred during the heavy rain event earlier this week. Observations throughout the week were limited, but similar natural activity likely occurred throughout the region.On Saturday, expect fresh storm slabs that will be thicker and more reactive at higher elevations and in exposed terrain.

Snowpack Summary

Expect 20-30 cm of new snow by Saturday morning with rising freezing levels creating unstable storm slabs. The recent storm snow sits above a widespread rain crust that will be 30-50 cm deep. Some reports indicate the snow is bonding well to this crust, but that may not be the case everywhere.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.