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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 2nd, 2014–Mar 3rd, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

New snow and wind are developing a new storm slab that may not bond well to the old surface of crusts and facetted crystals. Check out the forecaster blog for more information on the persistent weak layer.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Monday: Light snow overnight combined with moderate Southwest winds and freezing levels around 500 metres. Snow becoming moderate to heavy in the morning bringing 10-15 cm combined with strong Southwest winds during the day. The freezing level is expected to climb up to about 1200 metres.Tuesday: Snow ending by morning as the freezing level slides back down to about 500 metres. Expect strong Southwest winds.Wednesday: The next pulse of moisture should start during the day. Expect strong Southwest winds combined with the snow.

Avalanche Summary

No new reports of avalanche activity since the cold air moved into the region. Forecast new snow and wind may create a storm slab by morning.

Snowpack Summary

Cold dry new snow has started to bury the recently formed melt-freeze crusts and surface facets that developed over the last few cold days. The melt-freeze crusts were found on all aspects at treeline and below, and on all but North aspects in the alpine. The very warm alpine temperatures and strong solar radiation from last week caused a great deal of settlement in the old storm slab above the early February weak layer. The February weak layer of crusts and facets has been reported to be rounding and bonding in areas where the old storm slab is 150 cm or deeper. Shallow snow pack areas where the old storm slab is closer to a metre or less continue to give sudden planar shears in snow profile tests. North aspects in the alpine may have had enough warming to settle the storm snow into a cohesive slab, but not enough to improve the weak layer bond. Big un-supported alpine North aspects are the most likely place to find a well preserved deeply buried February weak layer that may continue to allow for long propagations resulting in very large avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.