Avalanche forecast

South Coast

Feb 21 – 22, 2016Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Watch for pockets of wind slab and give cornices a wide berth.

Avalanche problems

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–4
    Cornices are expected to grow with the forecast snow and wind and may collapse naturally. The weight of a person may be enough to cause a cornice failure.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3
    Recent storm slabs continue to be reactive to rider triggers especially on wind loaded slopes. If the sun shines it may have enough punch to trigger natural avalanches.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain on Wednesday

Weather Forecast

MONDAY: flurries overnight with up to 4cm expected, becoming mainly sunny through the day, light and variable winds, 1500m freezing level. TUESDAY: mainly sunny light southeasterly winds, 1500m freezing level. WEDNESDAY: mainly sunny, light westerly winds, 1500m freezing level with an inversion and above freezing level extending possible in the alpine.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous natural and artificially triggered storm slab avalanches have been reported in the last couple of days. Wind slab avalanches are expected to be remain reactive to human-triggering.  Cornices are reported to large and fragile, and may fail under the weight of a person.

Snowpack Summary

Recent storm snow continues to settle and gain strength.  Ongoing southeast through southwest winds have been loading leeward features in the alpine and large cornice development has been reported over the last few days.  About 80cm of snow now sits on a thick rain crust that extends into the alpine. The overlying snow is reported to be bonding well to this crust.  Wet snow is being reported at lower elevations and as the freezing level continues to drop, a crust is expected to form on the surface. The weak surface hoar layer buried in early January can be found down over a meter.  It is becoming increasingly hard to make this layer fail in snowpack tests and triggering an avalanche on it is unlikely.

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