Avalanche forecast

South Coast

Jan 12 – 13, 2015Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Conservative choices should be on the radar right now as we wait for fresh snow.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–5
    Winds from the SW may be redistributing snow onto NE slopes at upper elevations and tree line. A small avalanche may produce enough force to trigger deeply buried instabilities.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Forecast models show no precipitation for the region until Thursday afternoon when a pulse of Pacific moisture is scheduled to arrive. Freezing levels will stay around 600m throughout out the forecast period, but an above freezing layer will pass through the region on Wednesday.  Winds will be light for the most part from the  S-SW..

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported, but reports of solar warming have some areas talking about decreasing stability in the afternoon on steep solar aspects, with size 1.5 avalanches possible.

Snowpack Summary

A thick supportive surface crust has capped the snowpack in most, if not all, parts of the forecast region. Below the crust is the most recent storm snow around 50-70cm deep and sitting on a variety of snow surfaces that includes wind affected surfaces, a freezing rain crust or sun crust, and surface hoar or sugary facets in sheltered terrain. In the mid snowpack there is a mid-December surface hoar or crust/facet weak layer. This is now typically buried 1m or more. The old surface hoar layer may be found in sheltered shady areas at and below treeline, while the slightly deeper crust/facet layer is more widespread and variable.

Regions covered