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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 17th, 2013–Dec 18th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Forecasters are operating with limited field data this early in the season. If you have been in the backcountry and have information, we'd love to hear from you. Contact us at:[email protected]

Confidence

Fair - Due to the number and quality of field observations

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: As the Pacific front moves out of the area, cold arctic air will move in from the north. Freezing levels drop to valley bottom.Thursday: Continued cold arctic air in the region until the next the next storm approaches and the arctic air retreats. No precipitation forecastFriday:  The cold temperature will remain until the next Pacific system pushes it out.  Light precipitation forecast.

Avalanche Summary

No avalanches in the region have been reported. This is more likely because of lack of observations rather than actual conditions. More westerly regions have reported a dramatic rise in avalanche activity.

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack levels vary widely with reports of up to 180cm at tree line in some parts of the region. Moderate to heavy snow fall will continue to add load to buried weak layers. The upper snowpack contains wind slabs, surface hoar, and facets. Rising temperatures forecast over the next few days will consolidate the storm slab above these weak layers. It's difficult to determine when the slab will become reactive to light triggers like skiers and sledders. These weak layers are expected to be persistent. In many areas the upper slab is not yet stiff enough for slab avalanches. When temperatures rise, and with additional snow, expect these layers to become more active.Deeper, in the mid-pack, a couple of persistent weak layers (surface hoar and facets) can be found that formed in mid and late November. Near the base of the snowpack, an early season rain crust exists. The continuous loading of new snow and the rising temperatures may be enough to wake up these previously dormant layers.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.