Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger is generally MODERATE this morning but could rise to CONSIDERABLE later today as new snow and wind create fresh drifts along upper elevation ridge crests and terrain features, primarily on slopes that face NW-N-SE. New wind drifts will cover old, and avalanches up to 3' deep will be possible on steep, wind loaded terrain. Be alert to changing conditions and adjust your plans accordingly. There also remains an isolated or MODERATE danger for triggering a deep and dangerous avalanche on a buried, persistent weak layer. You are most likely to encounter this problem on steep, rocky, northerly facing slopes, or in areas with a shallower snowpack.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    With increasing SW winds, and snow in the forecast, be on the lookout for fresh deposits of wind drifted snow on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features in upper elevation terrain that faces NW-N-SE. New wind drifts will cover old, and avalanches up to 3' deep will be possible on steep, wind loaded terrain. You can recognize wind drifted slopes by their smooth, rounded, or "fat" appearance. Cracking in the snow surface is a sign of instability.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Most of the instability in yesterday's storm snow has likely settled out, but remain on the lookout for dense, cohesive slabs 6" or more inches thick if you find yourself in steeper terrain today. A quick hand pit will tell you if they exist. Look for signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface, and avoid slopes steeper than 35 degrees where slabs are present.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    4

    Though it's been getting harder to trigger an avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer, a poor snowpack structure still exists in many areas. The most suspect areas are steep, rocky slopes facing NW-NE-E, but other areas with a shallower snowpack also remain suspect. This includes slopes that have already avalanched, or that have been previously wind scoured. Any avalanches triggered on a persistent weak layer would be large and dangerous.

Special Announcement

It is with great sadness that I report the death of an old friend. On Sunday, March 3, Scott Spencer was caught, buried, and killed in an avalanche near Lizard Head Pass, about 12 miles south of Telluride, Colorado. It has been a deadly season in Utah and Colorado this year, and this one has really hit home. My deepest condolences go out to his wife Sara, sons Jack and Peter, and the rest of his family and wide circle of friends who have been affected. Here is the preliminary report.

Snow and Weather

No new snow has fallen since yesterday morning when Gold Basin reported 5" of new, relatively high density snow. SW winds yesterday blew in the moderate range along ridge tops. They'll be on the increase today, with a frontal passage from the next storm system expected this afternoon. Things could get a bit wild with intense periods of snowfall and graupel, and strong, gusty winds up to 40 mph. Expected snow totals aren't too impressive however with 4"-6" possible by tomorrow morning, most of it coming later this afternoon and evening. 10,000' temps are in the mid 20's and that's where they'll remain today.

Dave Garcia and Reed Kennard were up yesterday and reported fast and fun turning and riding on the dense, new snow. Read their observation here.

Got Rime? Dave Garcia photo.

New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')

Snotel totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600') y

Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')

National Weather Service point forecast.

Additional Info

Check out this clip of local Moab sledders playing it safe and making sure their beacons are on at the Geyser Pass Trailhead.

General Announcements

Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: [email protected].

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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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