Avalanche forecast

Aoraki/Mt Cook

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 2,000 m
3 · Considerable
Alpine · 1,500 m–2,000 m
3 · Considerable
Sub Alpine · below 1,500 m
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Reactive storm and windslabs are likely to be encountered.

New snow will need time to settle and bond-keep plans conservative if you hope to head out this weekend.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    An estimated 100cm of new snow has fallen about the Divide, with around 40cm to the east as of Saturday morning. Winds were strong to gale NW but eased back over Friday, and finished much colder southerly. Expect reactive wind and storm slab conditions on many slopes above 1600m. A change to very cold southerly winds will have shifted loading onto northerly aspects. The new snow has landed on a variety of snow surfaces; from crust to old stiff windslab and shallow powder in sheltered areas.

  • Loose Dry

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5

    Loose dry avalanching is very likely. As the day warms over Sunday expect this to transition to a loose wet problem on northern and western aspects. Act accordingly and don't park up under a sunbaked bluff for lunch.

Recent Avalanche Activity

A natural avalanche cycle has taken place. Clouds parted Saturday afternoon, several size 2-3 slab avalanches were observed to have run above Sefton Bivi, and on Cadogan Peak.

Current Snowpack Conditions

Around 100cm of new snow is estimated to have fallen about the Divide since late Thursday, with 50cm at Mueller hut (1800m elevation), and around 60cm in the Liebig range. Winds were strong or gale NW initially but eased and turned much colder southerly. Snow has fallen to valley floor. Widespread storm snow and windslab instabilities should be anticipated. This new snow overlies snowfall from earlier in last week that was extensively distributed by gale NW and SW winds. Below around 1800m the older snowpack was capped with a hard rain crust. Faceting has been observed in shallow snowpack areas. The lower snowpack appears to be well bonded, but we are continuing to monitor crust facet laminates in the lower pack in the eastern part of the forecast area.

Mountain Weather

Forecast

Fine.

Wind at 1000 metres

Light.

Wind at 2000 metres

Light.

Wind at 3000 metres

Southwesterlies 35 km/h.

Freezing level

900 metres, lifting to 1200 metres in the morning.

Sliding Danger

Exposed areas could be firm, while lower elevation crusts will be refreezing after rain. Crampons and ice axe may be useful. Firm crusts may be hidden under new snow.

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

  • We are uncertain due to a limited number of field observations.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered