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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 14th, 2018–Apr 15th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

25cm of snow in the past 48hrs and more forecast to fall overnight.  Watch for the windslabs to become more reactive on sunday. If the sun comes out, avoid solar aspects.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

A few more cm of snow is forecast to fall overnight with upper level winds still in the Moderate SW range.  This new snow will add to the 15cm that fell throghout the day on Saturday.  If we do get more that the 4cm is forecast, we may see avalanche danger push back into the considerable range in the alpine. The freezing level on sunday is forecast to be at 2300m so as conditions warm up expect stability to decrease and the new snow to rapidly settle.

Avalanche Summary

Report on the MIN of a skier accidental sz 2 avalanche below the Window Couloir on french creek. Otherwise no new natural avalanche activity.

Snowpack Summary

SW winds increased in alpine overnight and into the morning building windslabs 20-25cm thick in lee features in the Alpine and treeline. The recent snow (10-15cm at treeline and above on Saturday and 10cm on Friday) is overlying a supportive MFC that is 4-6cm thick up to 2200m and up to the peaks on solar aspects We are finding good "dust on crust" skiing on top of this crust. Corncies are LARGE right now and a few have collapsed recently with the warmer weather. Start early and be home early before the snow begins to melt and settle and loose stability in the warmer temps or the solar radiation.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.