Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

It's possible to trigger a persistent slab avalanche on north through east aspects near and above treeline where stiff slabs rest on top of weak facets and facet crust combinations. Avoid steep slopes where you find obvious wind drifted pillows and stiffer snow underfoot, which will most likely be on the leeward sides of ridgelines and in cross-loaded terrain features. Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses and adjust your travels accordingly.  These types of avalanches can break wider than you think across terrain features producing a larger avalanche that could be big enough to injure or bury you. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Stiff slabs rest on top of facets and faceted crust combinations in the upper 3 feet of the snowpack on north through east aspects near and above treeline.  Recent snow and winds will help build and stiffen slabs on the leeward sides of ridgelines and in cross-loaded terrain.  These hard slabs will feel good underfoot giving you a false sense of security, but may just take hitting a "sweet spot" where the overall slab is thinner.  Avoid likely trigger spots near rock outcroppings and the margins of the slab and watch for obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks.  Take the time to dig a quick pit to assess if the slope you plan to play on has this slab weak layer combination. 

    Small grained facets just below stiff wind slabs that formed during last week's wind events were failing with easy to moderate force in stability tests. The January facet layer deeper down in the snowpack is showing signs of healing and was not reactive in tests.

Avalanche Discussion

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The warming trend will continue today with an abundance of our strong solar sun this time of year here in northern NM. Yesterday the 4 to 6 inches of low-density snow was quickly settling and on non-northerly or shady aspects and was heating up by mid-afternoon.  Expect that trend to continue and we may see small loose snow avalanches in steep terrain, especially around rock bands and cliffs.

As to be expected we were not finding many natural avalanches in the backcountry yesterday from the little bit of snow from Thursday's storm. The majority of avalanches were small loose snow slides in steep terrain that ran during the 2 inch an hour snowfall that we had during the storm. Moderate winds early Friday morning were transporting snow at ridgelines, but in travels above treeline we were only finding isolated pockets of wind drifted snow just below ridgetops and in cross-loaded gullies. These small wind slabs may fail on the firm crusts that formed prior to this last storm.   This could change Sunday and Monday with winds expected to ramp up ahead of the next system.  In the meantime, the new snow was bonding well to old firm surfaces below and was not finding it to be a concern, but pay attention to stiffening snow and shooting cracks off your boards.  

Prior to this recent round of snow, warm temperatures and periods of strong to moderate winds at upper elevations changed the overall snow surface.  South and west aspects have stout melt-freeze crusts with a little bit of new snow leading to a dust on crust feel.   Near and above treeline winds last week created stiff pencil hard supportable slabs of varying thicknesses (5 - 20cm). Beneath that is the 2 to 3 feet of snow that fell at the beginning of February, which has formed a thick slab capping the January facets that formed during the month-long high-pressure period. 

There are two faceted layers we were finding in the snowpack, with the first being just beneath wind or melt-freeze crusts and the other further down in the snowpack from the January high-pressure period. In snowpits, the most reactive layer was the upper faceted layer that was failing with easy to moderate force just below the upper slabs.  The January facet layer is showing signs of healing and rounding and has been compressed under 3 feet of snow that has fallen in February. We were not finding this layer to be reactive in tests and on most slopes is well insulated from the slabs above.  However, it may be possible to find this layer more reactive in shallower snowpacks.

Regions covered