Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Last week's snow rests on top of facet and faceted crust layers that formed during the January dry spell.  At upper elevations on west to north through east aspects is where you are most likely to trigger a persistent slab avalanche.  Use caution on slopes steeper than 35 degrees where you find a stiffer more cohesive slab, paying attention to obvious wind drifted pillows that may feel hollow and drummy. These persistent slab avalanches could break widely across a slope and be over 2 feet deep.  Evaluate snow and terrain carefully, identifying features of concern.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Last weeks 2 to 3 feet of snow has been settling and stabilizing with warm sunny days and cold clear nights. However faceted weak layers that formed on the surface during January's high-pressure period continue to linger below this 2-foot slab and may be more reactive at upper elevations on wind-affected slopes where there is a stiffer more cohesive slab. Use caution of slopes steeper than 35 degrees, paying attention to a stiffening in the surface that may feel hollow or produce shooting cracks or loud audible collapses.  This will most likely be on leeward sides of ridgelines and in cross-loaded terrain at upper elevations on west through north to east aspects.    A persistent slab avalanche has the ability to propagate wider than you think and could be large enough to injure or bury you.   

    Last week's storm snow rests on top of faceted weak layers that formed during the January dry period we had for the majority of the month.

Avalanche Discussion

A couple of inches of snow fell overnight with NW winds in the teens gusting in the 30 mph range at upper ridgelines. Today we will see sunny skies and temperatures in the 20's with NW winds in the 10 -15 mph range.  We'll remain under a NW flow for a couple of days as very warm weather for February pushes into northern NM starting Sunday into Tuesday.  Our next storm system is still on tap starting Wednesday as we see a pattern shift bringing better chances of snow through the end of next week.

 Last week's significant snowstorm that brought 2 to 3 feet has been settling over the last week with weather stations showing a decrease of 12 to 15".   Big temperature and solar swings with warm sunny days and cold clear nights have helped our persistent slab avalanche problem on many slopes, but upper elevations have had strong enough winds to create stiffer thicker slabs. It's on these above treeline slopes that you're most likely to find a cohesive slab able to propagate on faceted layers buried under these 2-foot slabs.   Taking the time to dig a quick pit in the upper portions of the snowpack is a great way to help with some of the complexities of our persistent slab problem.  

In recent travels, we haven't been noticing obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks or loud audible collapses. Long column tests have produced a mixed bag of results with non-propagating slab fractures to moderate to hard force with full propagation on the weak layer of concern which is facets and faceted crusts that formed during the January drought prior to this last storm. At upper elevations on the leeward sides of ridgelines and in cross-loaded terrain was where we were finding wind-affected snow from soft sastrugi to more supportable hollow-sounding slabs. Use caution on slopes where you find these stiffer slabs as these have been the areas where we've gotten extended column tests to propagate. 

Very steep terrain on aspects that don't face south and have been protected from the wind have the potential for small loose snow sluff's in the near-surface facets that have formed over the last   These types of slides could entrain enough snow to take you off your feet and be problematic in high-consequence terrain sweeping you over a cliff or pushing you into places you didn't intend to go especially in steep couloirs.   

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