Avalanche forecast

Central Cascades

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche danger on Wednesday depends largely on if it rains, when it rains and how much it rains.  Rain could saturate the surface snow and lead to Wet avalanches as the snow looses cohesion or weak layers from the last storm become reactive.  If high elevations escaped without rain, large Wind Slab avalanches remain possible on slopes that the wind has blown new snow onto.  Either way, your best tool for the day is paying attention to how wet, dry, or refrozen the surface snow is.  Completely saturated snow on steep slopes will be the most dangerous.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The rain that started falling midday on Tuesday likely caused a period of peak instability on Tuesday afternoon as our dry storm snow became wet.  I'm not sure that it rained enough to completely clean out the mid-storm weaknesses from the last storm.  If we see periods of rain on Wednesday, or the snowpack remains wet from Tuesday, Wet Slabs will be possible and could be large.  Essentially, our previous Storm Slabs and Wind Slabs will become Wet Slabs.

    We would also see Wet Loose avalanches.

    Avoid steep terrain if or when the snow becomes saturated.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    I think it is likely that only the highest terrain escaped without being rained on Tuesday.  For those highest elevations, Wind Slabs from the last storm would remain possible.

Avalanche Discussion

Well, it was good while it lasted!  What a loonngg weekend we have had!  Storm totals are 80 cm. or more.  On Tuesday I observed surface snow conditions indicative of Storm Slabs.  Wind Slab avalanches were observed.  I arrived at Dutchman Sno-park at 9 AM; it was snowing hard, there was empty parking, and people were smiling as they skinned up Tumalo or sledded out Century Drive!  By midday I was on top of Tumalo and it was raining. 

This rain on dry snow likely caused a peak period of instability.  Wednesday will be a period of transition out of our Considerable hazard.  Avalanches will remain possible on Wednesday, and specific instability depends upon timing and duration of any new liquid precipitation.

Regions covered