Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche hazard will begin as Low and move to Moderate as the sun heats sunny aspects and creates the potential for wet loose avalanches.  Wet loose natural and human triggered avalanches will be possible on steep sunny aspects during the heat of the day.  Wind slabs less than 1 foot in depth may be encountered in isolated areas of high elevation terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2.5

    Wet loose avalanches will be the most likely avalanche problem to encounter today.  Temperatures overnight remained at or above freezing on all weather stations.  This will allow for an increase in wet loose activity as the sun's heat can penetrate deeper.  

    This problem moves in daily cycles with stability dependent upon the time of day and aspect.  Today will begin with low avalanche hazard at all elevations on all aspects.  As the sun rises and begins to warm the surface snow the hazard will begin to rise on steep terrain that is in the sun.  Areas with rocks will be the first to be affected as the sun's energy is more effectively transmitted into the surrounding snow.  This type of avalanche problem starts from a single point and moves slowly at first.  As it moves it gathers more snow growing larger and picking up speed.  Despite their slow initial start, this type of avalanche problem can pose a significant risk as they can become very large in steep terrain with lots of relief and have the potential to bury a person or knock them off their feet or machine and carry you a significant distance depending upon the terrain.  Exposure to cliffs or terrain traps increases the potential consequences of being involved in a wet loose avalanche.  It’s crucial to recognize these conditions and avoid steep, sunlit slopes during warm periods where more than a few inches of the surface has become moist-wet to stay safe.

    The first slopes to warm up each day will be east, then south, and moving around the compass to west slopes in the evening.  Once the sun sets and temperatures cool, snow surfaces freeze, stability rapidly increases and the whole cycle starts again.  Pay attention to what part of the cycle you are in.  

    (4/15/2024)

    Wet loose and wet slab natural activity on steep south aspect

    Photo: Gareth Brown

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Light to moderate winds predominantly from the southeast occurred yesterday.  Thompson Pass recorded gusts up to 20 mph.  With minimal snow available for transport wind slab formation was observed to be minimal and isolated in distribution along the road corridor.  Be on the lookout for newly formed wind slabs, as it will be possible for a person or machine to be able to trigger one of these less than 1 foot in depth.   Wind slabs may have a pillowed or rippled texture that you can identify visually.  They will also have the characteristic of hard snow over soft when traveling over them.  Keep in mind that even small avalanches can be dangerous in consequential terrain.

Avalanche Discussion

RECENT AVALANCHE ACTIVITY:  

Last 24 hours: One D1 human triggered windslab was reported on Little Matterhorn. Natural cornice fall at Rock Bluffs (near hairpin). buried 3/4 of the highway with a substantial amount of debris.

Last 72 hours: Multiple D1-2 natural wet loose and wet slab avalanches have been observed on solar aspects.

DISCUSSION:

The most likely avalanche problems that a person may encounter today will have to do with the sun warming up the snow surface.  Wet loose avalanches are the most likely problem to be experienced. Overnight temps remaining at or near freezing will promote this activity today.  

Cornice fall and wet slab avalanches may be encountered as well.  Failures have been observed and reported, in regards to wet slabs the same travel techniques to avoid wet loose avalanches should be used.  As far as avoiding cornice fall, these are not as predictable and can happen at random times of the day, although they are more likely to occur when being affected by direct sunlight.  Avoiding traveling under or on top of cornices during all times of the day is recommended.

The avalanche hazard will remain low on north aspects at mid and upper elevations throughout the day.  Stable conditions have been observed and reported.  Stability tests continue to produce no results and slope testers have been getting into steep terrain without triggering avalanches.  Be aware that moderate to heavy sluffing has been observed in terrain steeper than 50°.

Keep wind slabs on your radar as moderate winds yesterday promoted some minor wind slab development in isolated areas at upper elevation.  Expect these to be possible to trigger less than 1 foot in depth over the next 48 hours where they exist.

 

Additional Concerns:

This is the time of year when cornices begin to fail.  You can significantly reduce your overall exposure in the mountains this time of year by avoiding traveling on top of or under cornices.

Glide crack releases have been observed on the southern aspects of Town Mountain lately.  Glide cracks exist in isolated areas and will be a hazard throughout the season until they fail.  Avoid exposure to glide cracks.

Valdez season snowfall: 286  inches

Valdez April snowfall: 11 inches

Valdez height of snowpack: 66 inches

Thompson Pass season snowfall: 698 inches as of 4/5

46 mile height of snowpack: 64 inches

 

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