Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Cooler temperatures are helping walk wet snow avalanche concerns back into the barn. Use caution on steeper slopes around 5,000 feet and lower as water may pool in the upper snowpack a bit longer before fully refreezing and aid failure in wet, weaker layers below. Higher in elevation, lingering weak snow grains are becoming more difficult to impact as the slab above settles and stiffens. Assess the risk of a lower-probability, high-consequence avalanche before stepping out into steeper terrain near and above the treeline.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Weak grains two to three feet deep linger below a stiffening slab. Surface hoar features (8 to 12 mm) still loom on northerly-facing slopes, while east and west-facing slopes harbor a thin, breakable crust with generally rounding facets above and below. These persistent grains have become more difficult to affect, but continue to fail in snowpack tests albeit with more loading steps and varying fracture character. A more stubborn to unreactive behavior is expected to evolve as we transition to cooler temperatures and limited new snow load, ultimately masking clues of hidden weaknesses below. To navigate this uncertainty, limit exposure to steep, rocky, or heavily wind-scoured areas where any one of these weaker grains could be more shallowly buried and have a slightly elevated chance to fail from a rider or machine.

    (2/27/2025)

    Believe it or not, but these surface hoar feathers still exist under an over meter deep slab on a northeast-facing slope around 6,100 feet. They got buried on January 31. These grains did not fail in standard snowpack tests, but did fail in a Deep Tap test at 20 taps. Bitterroot Mountains. February 27, 2025.

    Photo: Chris Bilbrey

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–1.5

    The return to below freezing temperatures is reducing the threat to trigger a wet snow avalanche. The snow surface likely experienced a solid refreeze at mid and upper elevations, but temperatures hovering near the freezing mark around 5,000 feet and lower may have lent a weaker refreeze. Increasing clouds early Monday combined with a standard afternoon warmup may help the surface turn moist and punchy making it easier to penetrate into wet, weaker layers with pooled water, and trigger an isolated slide. Pay attention to how deep you sink into wet, rotten snow and avoid traveling on steeper slopes near exposed rocks or below cliff bands with a non-supportive snow surface.

    **The presence of fresh glide cracks or widening older cracks is a clear indicator of instability, and slopes exhibiting these features should be avoided. Given the highly unpredictable nature of glide avalanche failure, avoiding travel on or beneath these slopes is strongly advised**

    (2/24/2025)

    A point release likely triggered this slab avalanche after the loose wet debris traveled downhill. East Cabinet Mountains.

    Photo: Mikey Church

Avalanche Discussion

The arrival of cooler, below freezing temperatures turns the page to the next chapter of the snowpack story. Wet snow hazards are becoming less threatening while buried persistent weak grains hunker down under a stiffening upper snowpack. Both of these transitions are expected to push the triggering needle closer to unlikely, especially without a major new snow load on the horizon. Anytime we climb out of a prolonged warmup where temperatures were north of the freezing mark for over 48 hours, giving things the opportunity to find more equilibrium is prudent winter-time snowpack/ terrain management.

Don’t erase your memory of these lingering persistent grains just yet as they have provided us with plenty of eyebrow raising snowpack tests and many large to very large natural and human triggered avalanches over the last month. As the slab above continues to settle and stiffen, the number of spots on a slope where a rider or machine could affect them and provoke a slide also diminish. Steep, rocky, or heavily wind-scoured places where slab depth is more variable might increase your chance to find trouble. Sticking to more planar slopes without cliffs, rock bands, or broad and steep convexities may help reduce the triggering potential, but will not eliminate the hazard 100 percent either.

At lower elevations, the plethora of sunny skies and above freezing temperatures drove melt-water deep in the snowpack - some places several feet, while fully-encompassing the snowpack in others. By and large, the wetting front migrated deeper at lower elevations, but observers also report wetting around a foot deep near 6,000 feet over the weekend. Cooler temperatures likely turned off the water faucet, but it may take a bit longer for pooled water to refreeze thanks to insulating characteristics of the snowpack. You can gauge wet snow hazards by how wet or unsupportive the snow surface is, and remember that wet debris can be a challenge to escape. A relatively small amount of debris can quickly push you somewhere you don't want to go.

Today’s hazard management is heavily dependent on slope orientation and terrain features within. Be willing to adjust your travels if surface conditions dramatically change or you experience an unexpected sign of unstable snow like a shooting crack or audible collapse. If you do, ask yourself what changed and consider digging down to see what’s below you. Assess the risks of a low-probability, high-consequence avalanche, and stay alert and make informed decisions.

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