Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

One to two feet of fresh snow has fallen above 6,500 feet in the past 24 hours, accompanied by strong southwesterly winds. This has created high avalanche danger, with the potential for small to very large slides. While today brings a brief respite in the storm action, winter conditions are far from over. Southwest flow will persist, bringing more snow and wind to the area. After significant weather events like this, adopting an assessment mindset is crucial for safety. Stay aware and make smart choices out there. Keep it tight, powder people!

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–3

    After a heavy snowfall, storm slab issues often settle quickly, but it's up to you to assess the risk. With up to 2 feet of fresh snow in the past 24 hours and ongoing snow showers today, instabilities may still be present. Weak layers can exist within the new snow or at the interface between new and old snow. Slabs can range from thin, soft layers to thicker, harder, and more dangerous ones. Monitor storm totals to gauge potential size, and expect greater risk at higher elevations and in leeward terrain. Watch for warning signs like shooting cracks on small, steep test slopes. To reduce risk, wait a day or two after the storm before venturing into steep terrain.

    An example of a storm slab avalanche

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–3

    Today is not the day to mess with wind loaded terrain. Strong southeast, south, and southwest winds averaging 15 mph, with gusts up to 55 mph, has accompanied the nearly two feet of fresh snow. Yesterday, Mother Nature was snowing and blowing hard, like she meant it.  Southwesterly wind speeds will increase over the next few days and continue to load leeward terrain. Wind slabs may be several feet thick, dense, and heavy. Very large avalanches are possible. Watch for blowing snow, cracking, or collapsing in drifted areas—clear warning signs of instability. Northerly slopes, as well as cross-loaded east and west slopes, are particularly suspect. To stay safe, stick to sheltered or wind-scoured areas. 

Avalanche Discussion

The forecast area has just received a healthy amount of snow, in a short amount of time. The Shasta snowmaker turned on yesterday and will remain active for the foreseeable future.  This means more snow and wind, two red flags of avalanche danger. The head on your shoulders is your best defense to stay safe. Strategically adopting a mind-set implies deliberately adjusting your desires according to conditions and circumstances. Categorizing your mindset can be a useful starting point for making route decisions as well as for staying on target throughout the day. The assessment mindset should be your default setting after substantial weather events like we just experienced. 

Yesterday was full value conditions: complete whiteout, snowing and blowing, two plus inches of snow per hour and a fat foot of new snow by early afternoon. We took a snowmobile tour from Bunny Flat to Old Ski Bowl...and couldn't see a thing. Observations are limited thus far in the storm cycle, but red flags of avalanche danger were flying high. Continue to be vigilant out there. 

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