Avalanche forecast

Central Cascades

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Warm temperatures and sunny skies will make it possible to trigger avalanches in wet snow on Tuesday. Pay attention to the snow surface as the day warms. If you're sinking into slushy snow, avoid steep slopes in the direct sun. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    On Tuesday, daytime highs could be 10-15 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than on Monday. Additionally, there will be fewer clouds filtering the sun's intensity. Wet loose avalanches remain our primary avalanche hazard during this warm spell. Watch for roller balls and pinwheels as early indicators that the snow surface is warming and losing cohesion. You can also monitor how deep your boots sink into the snow. If you're sinking in past your ankles, move out of the direct sun and/or to lower angle terrain. Continue to give cornices a wide berth. The sun and warming temperatures will weaken them. In addition to being a hazard, a falling cornice could trigger an avalanche on the slope below.

Avalanche Discussion

Overnight from Sunday to Monday, the snowpack did not get a solid refreeze below 8,000'. On Monday morning, there was a breakable crust over about 20 centimeters (8 inches) of mushy, rain saturated snow. The crust melted by midday and the snow surface became soft and slushy. Still, light to moderate winds and morning cloud cover kept the snowpack from warming to the extent of widespread wet loose avalanches. I did not observe any avalanches in the Broken Top bowl. 

Temperatures on Monday night are expected to dip to the mid-thirties. Normally, I would expect this to be cold enough to firm up the snow. However, this morning's snow conditions makes me skeptical that the snowpack will get a solid refreeze on Monday night. When the snow surface doesn't refreeze overnight, it will be quicker to warm, lose cohesion, and lead to wet snow avalanches as daytime temperatures rise. On Tuesday, be mindful that the snow could become slushy earlier than you'd expect for March. 

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