Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

You could trigger a wind slab avalanche on all aspects above the treeline, where the wind is strong and dry snow is available for transport. The likelihood of triggering a wet loose avalanche is decreasing, though keep on eye out for roller balls and warming snow on all south-facing aspects. Reduce your risk today by avoiding steep areas with wind-loaded snow and sunny slopes in the afternoon. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Yesterday, southwest winds blew strong near treeline with a 30 MPH gust recorded on Gray Butte. Above the treeline, forecasters expected gusts to reach up to 60 MPH. With this, wind slab avalanches are possible on any aspect above the treeline. After Saturday's 9,000+ foot freezing level, virtually no snow remains available for wind transport below and near the treeline. Above the treeline, dry snow remains and continued strong wind today will transport snow onto leeward terrain, most commonly north, northeast, and east aspects. Assess slopes for wind loading by looking for shooting cracks and lens-shaped snow surfaces. Feel for firm slabs of textured snow and listen for hollow, drum-like sounds. Being vigilant for these indicators before you are in steep, consequential terrain will increase your margin of safety and give you clues to what's going on higher in the mountains. 

    (2/20/2025)

    Wind slab over soft snow

    Photo: Samuel Clairmont

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Wet loose avalanche activity is a temporal avalanche problem. As morning turns to afternoon, crusty snow surfaces soften and meltwater trickles through to weak layers below. As this occurs, the likelihood of natural and human-triggered wet loose avalanches increases.  This problem lives on all south-facing aspects, though will be most common below and near the treeline. Small as they may be, these avalanches could carry you into a terrain trap.

    Indicators of risings instability include roller balls and natural avalanches. Be especially suspect near steep areas with rocks that can transmit more heat from the sun into the snowpack. To avoid this issue, start early and exit avalanche terrain before the heat of the day.

    (3/7/2025)

    A very small skier triggered wet loose avalanche on a southerly aspect near 7,500 feet

    Photo: Cory Beattie

Avalanche Discussion

The wind will be less prevalent today, though moderate to strong southwest wind should still help slow the onset of wet loose instabilities. With that being said, even with below freezing ambient air temperatures, the higher angle of the sun and longer daylight hours can push the temperature of the snow surface above freezing. As the day progresses, meltwater penetrates weak layers of the snowpack, decreasing its stability and increasing the chances of wet avalanche activity.

There is a serious storm a brewing. Today and tomorrow may be our last glimpses of sunshine for a while as we enter a period of active weather. We will measure new snow in feet and stoke in hoots and hollers. With this, avalanche danger will be on the rise in the middle of the week, so be sure to follow our daily avalanche forecasts to stay safe out there. 

On your backcountry travels, if you see something interesting, please submit an observation.

Road access information: https://www.co.siskiyou.ca.us/publicworks/page/closures-and-delays

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