Avalanche forecast

East Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Colder weather and just a few inches of new snow will mostly help the snowpack become more stable. However, higher in the terrain you may find a few shallow slabs on the wind-sheltered side of ridges. Blowing snow and sharp cornices should help you anticipate these wind-loaded pockets.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    There’s just enough new snow that can combine with windy conditions to form a fresh batch of shallow slabs around the East North zone. These should primarily be located near exposed ridges and along the base of cliffs closer to the Cascade crest. Even though we expect these slabs to remain small, they could trigger easily over a variety of older surfaces. Don’t let them catch you by surprise and send you over a cliff or flush you down a chute.

    (2/18/2023)

    Signs of wind loading to look for Saturday.

    Photo: Dallas Glass

Avalanche Discussion

This storm doesn’t really favor the East North zone. While locations close to the crest could receive a few inches of snow Thursday night and Friday morning, it likely won’t build much in the way of hazard. Instead, the bigger impact from this storm will be the much colder weather and cloudier skies. This should help ”lock up” any lingering wet snow surfaces and form a new crust. As a result, away from the few wind-loaded features, the snowpack should become quite strong. 

You could see a few sun breaks Friday, particularly in the afternoon. If the sun pops through the clouds it would quickly affect any new snow. This will mostly result in piles of new rollerballs, but you could also encounter a natural loose wet slide in places where more snow accumulates. 

Even though temperatures are cooling and snow is returning, avalanches like glide slabs won’t stop on a dime. The recent warm and sunny weather sent water deep into the snowpack and it will take a bit for it to drain or freeze. Continue to steer clear of areas below crevasse-like cracks. 

The recent spring weather really affected the old snow surface. A variable crust formed on E-S-W aspects high into the terrain due to sunshine and in shadier areas at lower elevations because of warm temperatures. Higher northerly aspects still managed to preserve cold dry soft snow over the past week. 

While this storm shouldn’t be enough to wake up any deeper weaklayers, we are still tracking a few interfaces in the snowpack. The Valentine's crust is 3-5 feet below the surface in the western half of the zone. You can expect to find shallower at lower elevations and further east. There have been numerous observations and snowpack tests indicating weak snow and poor structure exist below this crust. It's suspected to have been a weak layer for some of the very large avalanches at the end of the last storm cycle. We have less of an understanding of the progression of these layers east of Mazama and the Twisp River drainage.

Regions covered