Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

If the current weather forecast is realized or exceeded, expect rapidly rising instability and hazard to backcountry travelers.

Triggering an avalanche will be likely on loaded leeward slopes and terrain features at all elevations. Slopes steeper than 30° should be carefully assessed. Avoid cornices, convex pillows of wind-drifted snow, and steep slopes with a continuous surface of harder, rounded, and rippled snow. 

 For the safest backcountry experience, stick to below treeline slopes that are less than 30° steep. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wind-loaded, rounded, pillowed, rippled, and corniced slopes may have new and sensitive wind slabs. Exercise caution. All aspects should be suspect, but most south-southwesterly slopes may tend to have more wind scouring than loading today. The weather forecast suggests northwesterly slopes will have more scouring than loading by Thursday. 

    Below treeline, wind slabs will only be found in/near burn areas and places where the forest is more open (fewer trees).  

    Wind slab avalanches may step down, triggering larger persistent slab avalanches. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    With two weeks of rapid temperature changes and several storms, there is still some uncertainty about the upper snowpack of many difficult-to-access slopes of the Inner Basin. If any slopes have continuous and persisting weak layers, significant new snowfall may stress those layers to or near the point of failure. After significant snowfall, give the snowpack time to adjust and stabilize with the new load. KPAC recommends digging and observing the top 100-120cm of snowpack before committing to any avalanche paths near and above treeline. 

Avalanche Discussion

On Tuesday (Feb. 28) evidence of a crown line was observed on a northerly slope near Lockett Meadow Rd.  Elevation ~ 8000'. It appeared to be a relatively small avalanche, but large enough to sweep a person off their feet and into a tree. https://kachinapeaks.org/Observations/#/view/65f4c45c-80b1-4a51-bafd-5deb980d42dc

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